TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ihor Kvak
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
51111911131210119
Mykola Slozka
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:41 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeIhor Kvak to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Kvak above · Mykola Slozka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 102 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ihor Kvak at 55.7%
102 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Kvak 5–2 Mykola Slozka Mykola Slozka has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:41What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kvak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Kvak
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kvak 1429 vs Slozka 1547
Slozka
Wrong
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kvak 20% vs Slozka 40%
Slozka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kvak 30% vs Slozka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kvak -4 · Slozka +1
Kvak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kvak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kvak form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKvak 1.67 / Slozka 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kvak)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13161362
Kvak1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 21 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Slozka2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 77 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back25% 25 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKvak5wins
AwaySlozka2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKvak leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKvak80%4 of 5
AwaySlozkan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kvak5Slozka2n = 7Kvak took 5 of 7
S2Kvak4Slozka3n = 7Kvak took 4 of 7
S3Kvak4Slozka3n = 7Kvak took 4 of 7
S4Kvak4Slozka1n = 5Kvak took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricKvakSlozkaK − SBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match38.333.7+4.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKvakSlozkaBasisWin rate · lifetime34 / 67 vs 340 / 76750.8%44.3%34 / 67 vs 340 / 767Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KvakKvak 1.67/Slozka 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kvak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kvak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 19 · 13:55I. Kvak331111113M. Slozka239680
WSep 5 · 18:55I. Kvak331111113M. Slozka145360
LSep 2 · 11:35I. Kvak34117971M. Slozka3631111113
LAug 29 · 10:55I. Kvak3824131182M. Slozka531111119113
WAug 16 · 08:55I. Kvak4171112113M. Slozka321141071
WAug 2 · 11:25I. Kvak4411119133M. Slozka339211111
WAug 1 · 16:25I. Kvak45113713113M. Slozka45611111162
I. Kvak10
LSep 20 · 11:25T. Gil1.253111112123I. Kvak3.751113810102LSep 20 · 07:55O. Sydorchuk1.7361111113I. Kvak2.00113651LSep 20 · 05:55S. Prus1.80611611113I. Kvak1.9111711672LSep 20 · 04:55D. Palii1.9111127113I. Kvak1.807101161LSep 19 · 18:55I. Kvak3.509730T. Gil1.281111113WSep 19 · 16:55D. Palii1.7381171182I. Kvak2.00115115113LSep 19 · 14:55S. Prus2.251111113I. Kvak1.576650WSep 19 · 13:55I. Kvak1.671111113M. Slozka2.109680LSep 19 · 12:55O. Sydorchuk1.8311118123I. Kvak1.834411101WSep 5 · 18:55I. Kvak1.831111113M. Slozka1.835360
M. Slozka10
WSep 20 · 10:55O. Sydorchuk2.508840M. Slozka1.501111113WSep 20 · 08:25D. Palii1.911112851M. Slozka1.8061411113LSep 20 · 06:25T. Gil1.671211113M. Slozka2.1010630LSep 20 · 04:25S. Prus2.631211113M. Slozka1.4410680WSep 19 · 18:25O. Sydorchuk2.50116661M. Slozka1.5061111113LSep 19 · 17:25T. Gil1.67711614113M. Slozka2.10118111242WSep 19 · 15:55D. Palii1.83211501M. Slozka1.8311611103LSep 19 · 13:55I. Kvak1.671111113M. Slozka2.109680LSep 19 · 11:55S. Prus2.631191113113M. Slozka1.4481181522LSep 5 · 18:55I. Kvak1.831111113M. Slozka1.835360
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