TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Vasyl Matviichuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811711––––
Stanislav Zherykhin
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasyl Matviichuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasyl Matviichuk above · Stanislav Zherykhin below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Vasyl Matviichuk at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Matviichuk 2–3 Stanislav Zherykhin Vasyl Matviichuk has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:26What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Matviichuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matviichuk 1109 vs Zherykhin 1053
Matviichuk
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matviichuk 0% vs Zherykhin 60%
Zherykhin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matviichuk 20% vs Zherykhin 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matviichuk -5 · Zherykhin +1
Matviichuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matviichuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matviichuk form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatviichuk 1.80 / Zherykhin 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Matviichuk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13161969
Matviichuk1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 78 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it86% 62 of 72
Zherykhin1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 17 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMatviichuk2wins
AwayZherykhin3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderZherykhin leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatviichuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayZherykhinn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matviichuk3Zherykhin2n = 5Matviichuk took 3 of 5
S2Matviichuk2Zherykhin3n = 5Zherykhin took 3 of 5
S3Matviichuk2Zherykhin3n = 5Zherykhin took 3 of 5
S4Matviichuk2Zherykhin1n = 3Matviichuk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMatviichukZherykhinM − ZBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match33.437.0−3.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatviichukZherykhinBasisWin rate · lifetime284 / 603 vs 32 / 9147.1%35.2%284 / 603 vs 32 / 91Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.835.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatviichukMatviichuk 1.80/Zherykhin 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Matviichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zherykhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 10 · 07:00V. Matviichuk1910450S. Zherykhin341211113
WSep 6 · 10:29V. Matviichuk3911411133S. Zherykhin409119111
LSep 6 · 05:00V. Matviichuk29711831S. Zherykhin4211911113
WSep 3 · 09:00V. Matviichuk341111123S. Zherykhin2798100
LJul 12 · 12:00V. Matviichuk4611871192S. Zherykhin42411115113
V. Matviichuk10
WSep 20 · 15:00A. Danylov2.7571590V. Matviichuk1.401117113WSep 20 · 14:00A. Lysyi1.91770V. Matviichuk1.8011112LSep 20 · 12:30V. Hyriavyi2.7517121193V. Matviichuk1.401910781LSep 17 · 09:00V. Matviichuk2.63118941M. Zavoloka1.4451111113LSep 17 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.3011117113V. Matviichuk3.40741161LSep 17 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.4411156123V. Matviichuk2.6381311101LSep 17 · 05:30V. Simchuk1.361311113V. Matviichuk3.0011570WSep 15 · 09:00V. Matviichuk4.5011118133P. Shulhachyk1.177611111LSep 15 · 08:00M. Zavoloka1.501112113V. Matviichuk2.5091070LSep 15 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.251112113V. Matviichuk3.7581040
S. Zherykhin10
WSep 20 · 14:30V. Hyriavyi2.638840S. Zherykhin1.441111113LSep 20 · 13:00A. Lysyi1.571211623S. Zherykhin2.251091111WSep 20 · 12:00A. Danylov1.91461171S. Zherykhin1.8011117113WSep 14 · 09:30S. Zherykhin2.63711112123O. Badanin1.44119711102LSep 14 · 08:30S. Zherykhin2.10114691A. Lysyi1.6771111113LSep 14 · 07:00S. Zherykhin2.005510E. Bakin1.731111113LSep 14 · 06:00S. Zherykhin1.672087111O. Shvydkyi2.10181111133LSep 13 · 16:59O. Levytskyi1.8311711113S. Zherykhin1.83911741LSep 13 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.1131111113S. Zherykhin6.00119991LSep 13 · 15:00S. Zherykhin1.281281191V. Khyzhnyak3.5014115113
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