TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140660
Played Sep 17Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911611––––
Jiri Zuzanek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Jiri Zuzanek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 56 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Richard Wagner at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 3–6 Jiri Zuzanek Richard Wagner has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Wagner beat Zuzanek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:55What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Zuzanek
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1652 vs Zuzanek 1629
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 60% vs Zuzanek 20%
Wagner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 60% vs Zuzanek 40%
Wagner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner -1 · Zuzanek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wagner)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zuzanek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.73 / Zuzanek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wagner)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140660
Wagner1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 67 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it79% 49 of 62
Zuzanek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 111 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back32% 36 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeWagner3wins
AwayZuzanek6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderZuzanek leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner100%3 of 3
AwayZuzanek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner3Zuzanek6n = 9Zuzanek took 6 of 9
S2Wagner5Zuzanek4n = 9Wagner took 5 of 9
S3Wagner2Zuzanek7n = 9Zuzanek took 7 of 9
S4Wagner4Zuzanek1n = 5Wagner took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricWagnerZuzanekW − ZBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match32.334.3−2.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerZuzanekBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 207 vs 546 / 108753.1%50.2%110 / 207 vs 546 / 1087Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.73/Zuzanek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zuzanek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 17 · 12:30R. Wagner238960J. Zuzanek331111113
WSep 17 · 07:30R. Wagner4111118113J. Zuzanek29571161
WAug 17 · 07:30R. Wagner3911611113J. Zuzanek26711441
LAug 1 · 15:00R. Wagner2310670J. Zuzanek341211113
LJul 26 · 13:00R. Wagner27211771J. Zuzanek3811511113
WJul 26 · 10:00R. Wagner331111113J. Zuzanek237880
LJul 14 · 16:58R. Wagner43101161152J. Zuzanek50128118113
LJul 14 · 16:00R. Wagner3961171142J. Zuzanek43116114113
LJul 9 · 18:30R. Wagner236980J. Zuzanek331111113
R. Wagner10
WSep 17 · 12:58J. Zuzanek1.809111171R. Wagner1.9111137113LSep 17 · 11:00R. Wagner1.858640M. Sychra1.851111113WSep 17 · 10:00R. Urbaniec1.57311741R. Wagner2.2511811113WSep 17 · 09:28R. Wagner1.9111136133J. Tazler1.8031111111LSep 17 · 08:00R. Wagner1.831171071J. Tazler1.8351112113WSep 17 · 07:30J. Zuzanek1.83571161R. Wagner1.8311118113WSep 17 · 06:00R. Wagner1.6111118113M. Regner2.20581191WSep 14 · 02:58M. Vondrak2.00511851R. Wagner1.7311911113LSep 14 · 02:30R. Wagner1.6111490M. Vondrak2.201311113LSep 14 · 01:30J. Tazler2.001112113R. Wagner1.7391060
J. Zuzanek10
LSep 17 · 12:58J. Zuzanek1.809111171R. Wagner1.9111137113LSep 17 · 11:30J. Zuzanek2.63119641R. Urbaniec1.4491111113LSep 17 · 10:30M. Sychra1.9151112113J. Zuzanek1.801191051WSep 17 · 08:58J. Zuzanek1.91131011113M. Regner1.801112861LSep 17 · 08:30M. Regner2.0011811113J. Zuzanek1.73911791LSep 17 · 07:30J. Zuzanek1.83571161R. Wagner1.8311118113WSep 17 · 06:30J. Tazler1.7391080J. Zuzanek2.001112113LSep 16 · 13:30J. Zuzanek1.8512111091V. Vejvoda1.8514912113WSep 16 · 12:30V. Vejvoda1.7366120J. Zuzanek2.001111143LSep 16 · 11:30J. Zuzanek2.002350M. Vondrak1.731111113
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