TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136757
Played Sep 16Finished
Oleksandr Melashenko
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1416511911––––
Dmytro Rehotun
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Melashenko to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Dmytro Rehotun below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 66 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Melashenko at 79.4%
66 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 5–1 Dmytro Rehotun Dmytro Rehotun has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Melashenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Melashenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1521 vs Rehotun 1396
Melashenko
Wrong
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 40% vs Rehotun 20%
Melashenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 60% vs Rehotun 40%
Melashenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko +1 · Rehotun -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Melashenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 1.25 / Rehotun 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Melashenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13136757
Melashenko1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 83 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it76% 53 of 70
Rehotun3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 6 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMelashenko5wins
AwayRehotun1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderMelashenko leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko100%4 of 4
AwayRehotunn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko4Rehotun2n = 6Melashenko took 4 of 6
S2Melashenko3Rehotun3n = 6split evenly
S3Melashenko5Rehotun1n = 6Melashenko took 5 of 6
S4Melashenko2Rehotun1n = 3Melashenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricMelashenkoRehotunM − RBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match36.833.7+3.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoRehotunBasisWin rate · lifetime440 / 869 vs 201 / 40350.6%49.9%440 / 869 vs 201 / 403Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelashenkoMelashenko 1.25/Rehotun 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Melashenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rehotun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 16 · 23:05O. Melashenko2814590D. Rehotun381611113
WSep 15 · 15:25O. Melashenko331111113D. Rehotun268990
WSep 14 · 21:35O. Melashenko3612211113D. Rehotun361011781
WSep 9 · 15:55O. Melashenko48137116113D. Rehotun44111131182
WSep 1 · 21:05O. Melashenko341111123D. Rehotun2477100
WAug 31 · 18:25O. Melashenko4291111113D. Rehotun34115991
O. Melashenko10
WSep 17 · 24:05S. Khandetskyi1.618950O. Melashenko2.201111113WSep 16 · 22:05S. Pitsyk2.637990O. Melashenko1.441111113LSep 15 · 20:25O. Melashenko2.0051030S. Khandetskyi1.731112113LSep 15 · 18:25V. Kobets2.1011117143O. Melashenko1.677511121LSep 15 · 16:25D. Derevynskyi1.571111113O. Melashenko2.256760WSep 15 · 15:25O. Melashenko1.331111113D. Rehotun3.258990WSep 15 · 14:25Y. Sokoltsov2.254740O. Melashenko1.571111113WSep 15 · 04:05K. Hrynenko1.575570O. Melashenko2.251111113LSep 15 · 02:35O. Melashenko2.10115119122S. Khandetskyi1.67811911143WSep 15 · 24:35H. Kulishov1.61911961O. Melashenko2.2011911113
D. Rehotun10
LSep 16 · 21:05S. Khandetskyi1.7311113113D. Rehotun2.00881191LSep 15 · 19:55Y. Sokoltsov1.731111113D. Rehotun2.007830WSep 15 · 18:55S. Khandetskyi1.6111741182D. Rehotun2.20611117113LSep 15 · 17:25V. Kobets1.306121111113D. Rehotun3.4011148782LSep 15 · 15:25O. Melashenko1.331111113D. Rehotun3.258990LSep 15 · 13:25D. Derevynskyi1.531111113D. Rehotun2.387760LSep 15 · 03:05V. Kobets1.4451111113D. Rehotun2.63118561WSep 15 · 02:05D. Rehotun2.3811149113K. Hrynenko1.538121191WSep 15 · 01:05D. Rehotun2.5091112133S. Khandetskyi1.5011510111WSep 14 · 23:35D. Rehotun2.00115511113H. Kulishov1.7371111882
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