TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131392
Played Sep 15Finished
Vitalii Kobets
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
61110121151214––
Serhii Khandetskyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kobets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Kobets above · Serhii Khandetskyi below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 81 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Vitalii Kobets at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kobets 20–27 Serhii Khandetskyi Vitalii Kobets has won 20 of their 47 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:52What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kobets
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-27 in 47
Khandetskyi
Correct
gap of 7 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kobets 1490 vs Khandetskyi 1503
Khandetskyi
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kobets 20% vs Khandetskyi 60%
Khandetskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kobets 50% vs Khandetskyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kobets +1 · Khandetskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kobets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kobets form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKobets 1.80 / Khandetskyi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kobets)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13131392
Kobets1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 77 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it80% 51 of 64
Khandetskyi1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 77 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back25% 20 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKobets6wins
AwayKhandetskyi4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKobets leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKobets80%4 of 5
AwayKhandetskyi60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kobets5Khandetskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Kobets7Khandetskyi3n = 10Kobets took 7 of 10
S3Kobets5Khandetskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Kobets6Khandetskyi1n = 7Kobets took 6 of 7
S5Kobets1Khandetskyi3n = 4Khandetskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKobetsKhandetskyiKobets − KhandetskyiBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.432.7+7.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKobetsKhandetskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime448 / 866 vs 400 / 79851.7%50.1%448 / 866 vs 400 / 798Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KobetsKobets 1.80/Khandetskyi 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kobets · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Khandetskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 21:05V. Kobets48119111162S. Khandetskyi40411113113
WSep 9 · 16:25V. Kobets51611911143S. Khandetskyi47115118122
WSep 7 · 16:55V. Kobets4211119113S. Khandetskyi27441181
LAug 31 · 16:55V. Kobets431010111112S. Khandetskyi47121239113
WAug 27 · 01:55V. Kobets331111113S. Khandetskyi95220
WAug 24 · 17:55V. Kobets331111113S. Khandetskyi219750
WAug 19 · 21:05V. Kobets4111118113S. Khandetskyi29941151
LAug 12 · 14:25V. Kobets4671291172S. Khandetskyi491110116113
LAug 12 · 02:05V. Kobets268990S. Khandetskyi331111113
WAug 4 · 16:55V. Kobets4181111113S. Khandetskyi25114731
V. Kobets10
WSep 15 · 03:05V. Kobets1.4451111113D. Rehotun2.63118561LSep 15 · 01:35V. Kobets2.3811660H. Kulishov1.531311113LSep 15 · 24:05V. Kobets3.759850K. Hrynenko1.251111113LSep 14 · 22:35V. Kobets2.10111511782O. Melashenko1.67717611113LSep 14 · 21:05V. Kobets1.73119111162S. Khandetskyi2.00411113113WSep 9 · 20:25V. Kobets4.501111113K. Hrynenko1.179750WSep 9 · 18:25O. Melashenko1.5711711782V. Kobets2.25811611113WSep 9 · 16:25S. Khandetskyi2.00115118122V. Kobets1.73611911143LSep 9 · 15:25V. Kobets2.387712111S. Skachenko1.53111110133WSep 9 · 14:25D. Rehotun2.0010610V. Kobets1.731211113
S. Khandetskyi10
LSep 15 · 14:55D. Derevynskyi1.57117911113S. Khandetskyi2.2561111482WSep 15 · 03:35H. Kulishov1.838511101S. Khandetskyi1.8311119123WSep 15 · 02:35O. Melashenko2.10115119122S. Khandetskyi1.67811911143LSep 15 · 01:05D. Rehotun2.5091112133S. Khandetskyi1.5011510111LSep 14 · 23:05K. Hrynenko1.571111113S. Khandetskyi2.255920WSep 14 · 21:05V. Kobets1.73119111162S. Khandetskyi2.00411113113WSep 9 · 19:25S. Khandetskyi1.831111113O. Melashenko1.838950WSep 9 · 17:55S. Khandetskyi1.501111103113D. Rehotun2.5098121162LSep 9 · 16:25S. Khandetskyi2.00115118122V. Kobets1.73611911143LSep 9 · 14:55S. Khandetskyi2.6311981162K. Hrynenko1.44511119113
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