TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13127634
Played Sep 14Finished
Jaime Lama
Home
1.93
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711711117811––
Tobias Saltzer
Away
1.77
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:11 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeJaime Lama to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
711711117811––
H2H Jaime Lama 3–0 Tobias Saltzer Tobias Saltzer has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:11What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (52%)
Saltzer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Lama
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lama 1435 vs Saltzer 1535
Saltzer
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lama 0% vs Saltzer 20%
Saltzer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lama 30% vs Saltzer 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lama -5 · Saltzer -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Saltzer) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Saltzer form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLama 1.93 / Saltzer 1.77
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Saltzer)+1.8pp
Challenger Series TT · #13127634
Lama1.93
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog24% won 8 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Saltzer1.77
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLama3wins
AwaySaltzer0wins
Lama leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lama1Saltzer2n = 3Saltzer took 2 of 3
S2Lama3Saltzer0n = 3Lama took 3 of 3
S3Lama3Saltzer0n = 3Lama took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricLamaSaltzerL − SBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match38.028.7+9.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLamaSaltzerBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 192 vs 39 / 8439.1%46.4%75 / 192 vs 39 / 84Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.534.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SaltzerLama 1.93/Saltzer 1.77
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Saltzer · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Saltzer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WApr 6 · 13:00J. Lama4371411113T. Saltzer321112541
WMar 19 · 10:30J. Lama3851111113T. Saltzer30118741
WAug 11 · 07:00J. Lama331111113T. Saltzer248880
J. Lama10
LSep 14 · 15:00J. Lama11.0010640I. Bertrand1.021211113LSep 14 · 14:00J. Lama2.2796100J. Loffler1.571111123LSep 14 · 10:30J. Lama1.28115111172S. Happek3.50311813113LSep 14 · 08:30J. Lama—9550S. Almeida—1111113LSep 14 · 06:30J. Lama—8370Y. Su—1111113WMay 22 · 08:00J. Lama1.53911111113S. Happek2.3811911462LMay 21 · 17:00J. Lama10.008590M. Danzer1.031111113LMay 21 · 15:00J. Lama2.109111712102L. Kraus1.671191514123WMay 21 · 14:00J. Lama1.10119911113A. Moreno6.5081111682WMay 21 · 10:30J. Lama1.3391111113D. Zech3.25114791
T. Saltzer10
LSep 14 · 15:30T. Saltzer—6940E. Mendes—1111113LSep 14 · 13:00T. Saltzer—66111142Y. Su—111147113LSep 14 · 11:30I. Bertrand1.1881111113T. Saltzer4.15113271LSep 14 · 09:30J. Loffler1.38111011113T. Saltzer2.80512681WSep 14 · 07:30S. Happek2.058111261T. Saltzer1.6811914113LAug 7 · 08:30A. Mino1.3711115113T. Saltzer2.85171181LAug 6 · 17:00K. Fadeev—1211113T. Saltzer—10720LAug 6 · 15:30T. Saltzer—9660K. Zimmermann—1111113WAug 6 · 13:00T. Saltzer—1211113T. Freund—10890LAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272
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