TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120921
Played Sep 13Finished
Dawid Jadam
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118511117118––
Filip Mlynarski
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Jadam to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Jadam above · Filip Mlynarski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Dawid Jadam at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Jadam 3–7 Filip Mlynarski Dawid Jadam has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Mlynarski beat Jadam 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:59What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jadam
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Mlynarski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadam 1697 vs Mlynarski 1750
Mlynarski
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadam 80% vs Mlynarski 60%
Jadam
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadam 60% vs Mlynarski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadam +2 · Mlynarski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jadam)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadam form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadam 1.80 / Mlynarski 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jadam)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13120921
Jadam1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 66 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it86% 43 of 50
Mlynarski1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 20 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadam3wins
AwayMlynarski7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMlynarski leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadam33.3%1 of 3
AwayMlynarski71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadam3Mlynarski7n = 10Mlynarski took 7 of 10
S2Jadam4Mlynarski6n = 10Mlynarski took 6 of 10
S3Jadam3Mlynarski7n = 10Mlynarski took 7 of 10
S4Jadam0Mlynarski7n = 7Mlynarski took 7 of 7
S5Jadam3Mlynarski0n = 3Jadam took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadamMlynarskiJ − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.241.7−7.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadamMlynarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 327 vs 177 / 31149.2%56.9%161 / 327 vs 177 / 311Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadamJadam 1.80/Mlynarski 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jadam · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jadam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 20:30D. Jadam32115881F. Mlynarski4291111113
LSep 13 · 24:35D. Jadam1911710F. Mlynarski351311113
WSep 6 · 21:00D. Jadam541311118113F. Mlynarski4615941172
LSep 6 · 16:05D. Jadam308111011F. Mlynarski4211812113
LSep 5 · 22:55D. Jadam2314630F. Mlynarski381611113
LSep 5 · 20:05D. Jadam184860F. Mlynarski331111113
WAug 16 · 22:35D. Jadam559111410113F. Mlynarski49116121282
LAug 16 · 18:50D. Jadam361111951F. Mlynarski4413911113
WAug 15 · 23:45D. Jadam45113119113F. Mlynarski4791191172
LAug 15 · 20:05D. Jadam30117391F. Mlynarski4181111113
D. Jadam10
WSep 13 · 21:50D. Jadam1.50691113113A. Wos2.50111161182WSep 13 · 21:25D. Jadam1.611111113L. Pietraszko2.204850LSep 13 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8391111113D. Jadam1.83115881WSep 13 · 19:15D. Jadam1.6171111113G. Kesik2.20115691WSep 13 · 18:05K. Staszczyk1.837380D. Jadam1.831111113WSep 13 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10118371D. Jadam1.6781111113LSep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek2.2511914113D. Jadam1.574111291LSep 13 · 24:35D. Jadam1.8311710F. Mlynarski1.831311113WSep 12 · 23:45P. Jendrzejewski1.7377111162D. Jadam2.00111159113LSep 12 · 22:35D. Jadam1.803990M. Marchlewski1.911111113
F. Mlynarski10
LSep 13 · 22:35A. Wos2.75711126113F. Mlynarski1.40118101142WSep 13 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.671111113L. Pietraszko2.106770WSep 13 · 21:00M. Rutkowski2.388740F. Mlynarski1.531111113WSep 13 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8391111113D. Jadam1.83115881LSep 13 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.5091070K. Staszczyk2.501112113WSep 13 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.441111113L. Pietraszko2.637470WSep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4451111113M. Kolek2.63118411WSep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.401113811113G. Kesik2.7571511252WSep 13 · 24:35D. Jadam1.8311710F. Mlynarski1.831311113LSep 12 · 22:55P. Jendrzejewski1.9112611113F. Mlynarski1.801011391
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