TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115388
Played Sep 12Finished
Radim Urbaniec
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119611911––
Jiri Ruzicka
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:22 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Ruzicka to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Jiri Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jiri Ruzicka at 63.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 28–45 Jiri Ruzicka Radim Urbaniec has won 28 of their 73 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Urbaniec beat Ruzicka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:22What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-45 in 73
Ruzicka
Correct
gap of 17 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1761 vs Ruzicka 1703
Urbaniec
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 40% vs Ruzicka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 30% vs Ruzicka 50%
Ruzicka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec -1 · Ruzicka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 2.38 / Ruzicka 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Ruzicka)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115388
Urbaniec2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 192 of 472
Down 0–1, comes back21% 56 of 264
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 146
Ruzicka1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 188 of 331
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it76% 137 of 181
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrbaniec4wins
AwayRuzicka6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniec50%3 of 6
AwayRuzicka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec6Ruzicka4n = 10Urbaniec took 6 of 10
S2Urbaniec4Ruzicka6n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S3Urbaniec5Ruzicka5n = 10split evenly
S4Urbaniec2Ruzicka5n = 7Ruzicka took 5 of 7
S5Urbaniec2Ruzicka2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbaniecRuzickaU − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.537.9−0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime625 / 1230 vs 676 / 139750.8%48.4%625 / 1230 vs 676 / 1397Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaUrbaniec 2.38/Ruzicka 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 16:59R. Urbaniec521351111123J. Ruzicka46151146102
LSep 12 · 16:30R. Urbaniec29511941J. Ruzicka4011711113
LSep 11 · 10:30R. Urbaniec31116591J. Ruzicka3851111113
LSep 11 · 09:00R. Urbaniec33611791J. Ruzicka3611311113
WSep 11 · 07:00R. Urbaniec331111113J. Ruzicka268990
LSep 10 · 24:00R. Urbaniec49115111482J. Ruzicka46411416113
WSep 9 · 15:30R. Urbaniec361111143J. Ruzicka2282120
LSep 8 · 10:00R. Urbaniec4211671172J. Ruzicka46911114113
WSep 8 · 06:30R. Urbaniec47119115113J. Ruzicka4691181172
LAug 29 · 12:30R. Urbaniec236890J. Ruzicka331111113
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 12 · 18:30O. Kolisnyk1.671111113R. Urbaniec2.108970WSep 12 · 16:59J. Ruzicka1.44151146102R. Urbaniec2.631351111123LSep 12 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.50511941J. Ruzicka1.5011711113LSep 12 · 15:00R. Urbaniec2.205690J. Kanera1.611111113WSep 12 · 14:00O. Kolisnyk1.67811681R. Urbaniec2.1011711113LSep 11 · 13:00R. Urbaniec1.9110260O. Kolisnyk1.801211113LSep 11 · 12:30V. Svechota1.361181611113R. Urbaniec3.0091118722WSep 11 · 11:30R. Urbaniec1.831111113O. Kolisnyk1.837680LSep 11 · 10:30J. Ruzicka1.5751111113R. Urbaniec2.25116591LSep 11 · 09:00R. Urbaniec2.10611791J. Ruzicka1.6711311113
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 12 · 18:00J. Ruzicka1.831016611113O. Svacha1.83121411272LSep 12 · 16:59J. Ruzicka1.44151146102R. Urbaniec2.631351111123WSep 12 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.50511941J. Ruzicka1.5011711113LSep 12 · 15:30J. Ruzicka1.618970O. Kolisnyk2.201111113LSep 12 · 14:30J. Kanera1.8011913113J. Ruzicka1.916111191WSep 11 · 13:30V. Svechota1.658580J. Ruzicka2.101111113WSep 11 · 12:00O. Kolisnyk2.10911110J. Ruzicka1.671113133LSep 11 · 11:00V. Svechota1.731111113113J. Ruzicka2.0091361122WSep 11 · 10:30J. Ruzicka1.5751111113R. Urbaniec2.25116591WSep 11 · 09:00R. Urbaniec2.10611791J. Ruzicka1.6711311113
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