TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13114183
Played Sep 11Finished
Dauud Cheaib
Home
1.17
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012116113115––
Thomas Pellny
Away
4.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDauud Cheaib to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDauud Cheaib above · Thomas Pellny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 69 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Dauud Cheaib at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:34What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Cheaib
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Cheaib 1905 vs Pellny 1633
Cheaib
Correct
both rated, 272 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cheaib 60% vs Pellny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cheaib 60% vs Pellny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cheaib -2 · Pellny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Cheaib) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pellny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCheaib 1.17 / Pellny 4.40
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Cheaib)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13114183
Cheaib1.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Pellny4.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricCheaibPellnyBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 91 vs 15 / 2579.1%60%72 / 91 vs 15 / 25Avg sets wonper match2.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
Forecastthe model predicts this market
Match Winner
CheaibCheaib 1.17/Pellny 4.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79%
Cheaib · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cheaib won
Handicap · Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
D. Cheaib10
LSep 11 · 10:59M. Henninger2.3891111113D. Cheaib1.53116871LSep 11 · 08:00D. Cheaib1.4511126932M. Stefanidis2.558101111113LSep 10 · 17:00D. Cheaib1.331110191M. Henninger3.2581211113WSep 10 · 15:00D. Cheaib1.071111113K. Moosmann7.506470WSep 10 · 14:00D. Cheaib1.011111113S. Amann12.007630WSep 10 · 10:30D. Cheaib1.0211711113D. Zech10.50711331LSep 10 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.17150T. Pellny4.50171WSep 10 · 06:30D. Cheaib1.0711811113M. Bott7.50811671LAug 14 · 10:59O. Kosolosky2.00671111113D. Cheaib1.7311119352WAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110
T. Pellny10
WSep 11 · 10:40M. Stefanidis—4890T. Pellny—1111113LSep 11 · 08:30T. Pellny2.50711211M. Henninger1.5011911113WSep 11 · 06:30T. Pellny1.17111497123K. Moosmann4.509121111102WSep 10 · 16:00T. Pellny1.101111113S. Amann6.508960LSep 10 · 12:30T. Pellny1.142D. Zech5.003WSep 10 · 11:00T. Pellny1.331110118143M. Bott3.25512611122WSep 10 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.17150T. Pellny4.50171WSep 10 · 07:00T. Pellny1.66111111113M. Stefanidis2.05813841LJun 23 · 10:44M. Stefanidis1.751111113T. Pellny1.959660LJun 23 · 09:15M. Danzer1.57611812113T. Pellny2.25117111062
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