TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111275
Played Sep 11Finished
Vasily Verbyany
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11610121161311––
Bohdan Kohut
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Bohdan Kohut below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 80 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Vasily Verbyany at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 48–54 Bohdan Kohut Vasily Verbyany has won 48 of their 102 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:49What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Verbyany
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-54 in 102
Kohut
Wrong
gap of 6 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 2033 vs Kohut 1915
Verbyany
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 100% vs Kohut 40%
Verbyany
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 90% vs Kohut 60%
Verbyany
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany +5 · Kohut +1
Verbyany
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Verbyany) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kohut form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 1.80 / Kohut 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Verbyany)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111275
Verbyany1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite56% won 47 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it72% 36 of 50
Kohut1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 116 of 309
Down 0–1, comes back19% 31 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVerbyany6wins
AwayKohut4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVerbyany leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVerbyany85.7%6 of 7
AwayKohut100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany7Kohut3n = 10Verbyany took 7 of 10
S2Verbyany6Kohut4n = 10Verbyany took 6 of 10
S3Verbyany7Kohut3n = 10Verbyany took 7 of 10
S4Verbyany3Kohut2n = 5Verbyany took 3 of 5
S5Verbyany1Kohut3n = 4Kohut took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVerbyanyKohutV − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.033.7+4.3per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyKohutBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 786 vs 286 / 64441.7%44.4%328 / 786 vs 286 / 644Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyVerbyany 1.80/Kohut 1.91
Hit
What we said
54.7%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 05:35V. Verbyany—118148113B. Kohut—811121162
WSep 7 · 15:35V. Verbyany—1113163B. Kohut—311140
LAug 30 · 21:00V. Verbyany—51161172B. Kohut—114118113
LAug 25 · 06:35V. Verbyany—9950B. Kohut—1111113
WAug 24 · 13:05V. Verbyany—1211113B. Kohut—10870
WAug 23 · 21:00V. Verbyany—11711113B. Kohut—811751
LAug 21 · 05:25V. Verbyany—61111832B. Kohut—118211113
LAug 20 · 15:25V. Verbyany—11971172B. Kohut—311117113
WAug 20 · 24:30V. Verbyany—1111123B. Kohut—69100
WAug 4 · 06:35V. Verbyany—1111113B. Kohut—3850
V. Verbyany10
WSep 11 · 06:55A. Molochko1.40651181V. Verbyany2.7511114113WSep 11 · 05:25V. Verbyany1.531113113O. Bondarchuk2.3851180WSep 8 · 11:05V. Verbyany1.7311711123D. Zeniuk2.008117101WSep 8 · 09:05A. Molochko1.4411141141V. Verbyany2.6391613113WSep 8 · 08:05V. Verbyany1.201311113A. Zeniuk4.3311180LSep 8 · 07:05N. Danyliuk1.44981111113V. Verbyany2.6311117232WSep 8 · 05:35V. Verbyany1.80118148113B. Kohut1.91811121162WSep 7 · 18:35V. Verbyany1.221111113A. Zeniuk4.006670WSep 7 · 16:35A. Molochko1.575111251V. Verbyany2.25111310113WSep 7 · 15:35V. Verbyany1.801113163B. Kohut1.91311140
B. Kohut10
WSep 11 · 05:55D. Zeniuk2.209670B. Kohut1.611111113LSep 11 · 04:55A. Molochko1.501111113B. Kohut2.506770WSep 10 · 17:24B. Kohut1.6711117113D. Pesternikov2.10791191LSep 10 · 15:55N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.258840LSep 10 · 14:25A. Molochko1.401111113B. Kohut2.759670WSep 10 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.8098121172B. Kohut1.911111107113WSep 10 · 11:55O. Bondarchuk2.201379121B. Kohut1.61111111143WSep 8 · 11:35B. Kohut1.25115911113A. Zeniuk3.7571111882LSep 8 · 05:35V. Verbyany1.80118148113B. Kohut1.91811121162LSep 7 · 15:35V. Verbyany1.801113163B. Kohut1.91311140
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