TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077235
Played Sep 5Finished
Grzegorz Sawicki
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611911119411––
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:00 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Nowak to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Sawicki above · Jakub Nowak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 72 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Jakub Nowak at 56.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Sawicki 24–23 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 23 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:00What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nowak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-23 in 47
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sawicki 1245 vs Nowak 1282
Nowak
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sawicki 60% vs Nowak 40%
Sawicki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sawicki 60% vs Nowak 30%
Sawicki
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sawicki +1 · Nowak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Nowak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSawicki 2.00 / Nowak 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Nowak)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13077235
Sawicki2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 126 of 382
Down 0–1, comes back19% 48 of 253
Down 0–2, comes back7% 12 of 162
Nowak1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 73 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it69% 51 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSawicki4wins
AwayNowak6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSawicki60%3 of 5
AwayNowak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sawicki5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S2Sawicki4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S3Sawicki8Nowak2n = 10Sawicki took 8 of 10
S4Sawicki3Nowak5n = 8Nowak took 5 of 8
S5Sawicki2Nowak4n = 6Nowak took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSawickiNowakS − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.642.6−1.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSawickiNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime353 / 890 vs 671 / 173739.7%38.6%353 / 890 vs 671 / 1737Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowakSawicki 2.00/Nowak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Nowak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 06:05G. Sawicki—691141J. Nowak—11119113
WAug 29 · 23:55G. Sawicki—114117113J. Nowak—71191182
LAug 29 · 17:55G. Sawicki—118101192J. Nowak—711126113
WJun 28 · 23:35G. Sawicki—1111123J. Nowak—88100
LJun 28 · 17:35G. Sawicki—911114112J. Nowak—117811133
WJun 28 · 03:55G. Sawicki—981311113J. Nowak—111111752
LJun 27 · 21:55G. Sawicki—149101182J. Nowak—1211123113
LMay 3 · 23:35G. Sawicki—101511152J. Nowak—1213811113
LMay 3 · 17:35G. Sawicki—941191J. Nowak—11119113
WApr 5 · 01:55G. Sawicki—1112113J. Nowak—51090
G. Sawicki10
LSep 6 · 20:00G. Sawicki4.508960K. Juszczyk1.151111113LSep 6 · 18:45G. Sawicki1.605119131R. Ogon2.1011411153LSep 6 · 17:35G. Sawicki2.60531361S. Krupa1.41111111113WSep 6 · 16:25R. Adach1.85131111792G. Sawicki1.851113611113WSep 6 · 15:35G. Sawicki2.001111125133W. Jozala1.71781411112LSep 6 · 08:00G. Sawicki1.8511911362R. Idaczyk1.80911911113LSep 6 · 06:45G. Sawicki2.75116471K. Juszczyk1.3781111113WSep 6 · 05:35G. Sawicki3.9511711113K. Hetnar1.20711861WSep 6 · 04:25W. Pytlas1.30481191G. Sawicki3.1011119113WSep 6 · 03:35G. Sawicki2.5011614133P. Slosarczyk1.4441112111
J. Nowak10
LSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130LSep 7 · 04:55J. Nowak1.83111351292P. Przewlocki1.835111114113LSep 7 · 03:50J. Nowak2.2511173882J. Pruszkowski1.579151111113WSep 7 · 02:20J. Nowak2.251112113J. Pruszkowski1.5781070WSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123LSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971WSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181LSep 6 · 22:00J. Nowak2.60321141K. Schaniel1.4211117113LSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok1.5061311113J. Nowak2.501111571LSep 5 · 13:30J. Nowak2.389111371W. Wojtaszczyk1.5311915113
Upcoming Matches
G. Sawicki
Nothing scheduled
J. Nowak
Sep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91R. Niemiec1.80—Sep 7 · 17:55J. Nowak—K. Adamus——Sep 7 · 18:45J. Nowak—M. Sikon——Sep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak—P. Kurek——Sep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak—G. Marud——Sep 7 · 22:20J. Nowak—O. Jadach——Sep 7 · 23:50J. Nowak—K. Adamus——Sep 8 · 24:30J. Nowak—O. Jadach——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak—P. Kurek——Sep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak—G. Marud——
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