TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #11853657
Played May 8Finished
David Reitspies
Home
1.03
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119611114117––
Makoto Nogami
Away
10.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingDavid Reitspies above · Makoto Nogami below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 70 set 4, 11-7
70 points played in total.
H2H David Reitspies 1–0 Makoto Nogami Makoto Nogami has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Reitspies)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reitspies form (80%) is below what odds imply (97%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReitspies 1.03 / Nogami 10.00
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Reitspies)-5.0pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #11853657
Reitspies1.03
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Nogami10.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeReitspies1wins
AwayNogami0wins
Reitspies leads 1–0.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricReitspiesNogamiR − NBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match39.031.0+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReitspiesNogamiBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 8 vs 16 / 5887.5%27.6%7 / 8 vs 16 / 58Avg sets wonper match2.61.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.833.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReitspiesReitspies 1.03/Nogami 10.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.7%
Reitspies · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Reitspies won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
W—D. Reitspies—3M. Nogami—1
D. Reitspies10
LAug 29 · 12:00A. Eriksson1.4011512103D. Reitspies2.754111041WAug 29 · 11:24D. Reitspies1.281211113T. Rasmussen3.5010980WAug 28 · 12:20D. Reitspies1.2511118863D. Chaperon3.7588111152WAug 28 · 11:18D. Reitspies1.1411118863D. Provost5.0088111152LMay 8 · 11:00M. Aguirre2.20711111113D. Reitspies1.6111871172WMay 8 · 09:45F. Bluhm2.208490D. Reitspies1.611111113WMay 8 · 08:30D. Reitspies1.251111113M. Hollo3.753470WMay 7 · 16:00D. Reitspies1.67111111113F. Bluhm2.10613971WMay 7 · 12:30D. Reitspies1.031111113D. Zech10.003940WMay 7 · 11:00D. Reitspies1.6115118113M. Danzer2.201381181
M. Nogami10
LAug 4 · 10:50K. Zimmermann1.0571111113M. Nogami8.50116931LAug 4 · 10:30K. Zimmermann—71111113M. Nogami—116931LAug 4 · 09:44M. Nogami1.83115111172M. Neumaier1.83711813113WAug 4 · 07:30M. Nogami7.2581111113J. Loffler1.05116771WAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991WAug 3 · 14:30M. Nogami1.831011811113M. Neumaier1.8312411992WAug 3 · 12:30J. Willeke3.256580M. Nogami1.331111113LAug 3 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.6711119113M. Nogami2.10841121WAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LAug 3 · 07:30M. Nogami5.5076111272A. Mino1.131111910113
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