Ondrej Knazik vs Tomas Cerveny Jr 0-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupCzech 3 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Ondrej Knazik

Home

1.40

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

0 – 3

Set by set

10127111113––––

Tomas Cerveny Jr

Away

2.75

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:39 and never touched: 65.1% is still 65.1%

Graded at full time

Ondrej Knazik to win

65.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingOndrej Knazik above · Tomas Cerveny Jr below

Set 1 · 10-12

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 11-13

Point 64 set 3, 11-13 · our read held Ondrej Knazik at 65.1%

64 points played in total.

H2H Ondrej Knazik 15–5 Tomas Cerveny Jr Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 5 of their 20 meetings.

Last 10 · 8–2Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Knazik

Knazik 1.40/Cerveny Jr 2.75

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

65.1%

Knazik · sealed before the serve

What happened

0–3

Cerveny Jr won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 11:39

65.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40

short by 6.3pp

71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.40 (66%)

Knazik

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

15-5 in 20

Knazik

Wrong

gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Knazik 1485 vs Cerveny Jr 1492

Cerveny Jr

Correct

both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Knazik 60% vs Cerveny Jr 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Knazik 30% vs Cerveny Jr 50%

Cerveny Jr

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Knazik +1 · Cerveny Jr +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Knazik) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Cerveny Jr: form 60%, the price implies 36%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKnazik 1.40 / Cerveny Jr 2.75

Signal prob.65% / 35%

Edge (Knazik)-6.3pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKnazik8wins

AwayCerveny Jr2wins

2 of 10 to a deciderKnazik leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKnazik83.3%5 of 6

AwayCerveny Jr25%1 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Knazik6Cerveny Jr4n = 10Knazik took 6 of 10

S2Knazik7Cerveny Jr3n = 10Knazik took 7 of 10

S3Knazik7Cerveny Jr3n = 10Knazik took 7 of 10

S4Knazik5Cerveny Jr1n = 6Knazik took 5 of 6

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home330%

3–1Four sets, home440%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricKnazikCerveny JrK − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.129.3+7.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKnazikCerveny JrBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 821 vs 336 / 60951.3%55.2%421 / 821 vs 336 / 609Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.1per match

TT Cup · #13281821

Knazik1.40

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite54% won 62 of 114

Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37

Up 1–0, closes it62% 43 of 69

Cerveny Jr2.75

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog39% won 42 of 108

Down 0–1, comes back22% 14 of 63

Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35

Ondrej Knazik vs Tomas Cerveny Jr 0-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Ondrej Knazik vs Tomas Cerveny Jr 0-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.