TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Mykhalchenko vs Maksym Tkalich 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115116115––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:57 and never touched: 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Mykhalchenko to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Mykhalchenko above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 49 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Volodymyr Mykhalchenko at 71.6%
49 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Mykhalchenko 13–11 Maksym Tkalich Maksym Tkalich has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5771.6%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 1.8pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Mykhalchenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Mykhalchenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mykhalchenko 1091 vs Tkalich 837
Mykhalchenko
Correct
both rated, 254 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mykhalchenko 60% vs Tkalich 0%
Mykhalchenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mykhalchenko 50% vs Tkalich 20%
Mykhalchenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mykhalchenko +2 · Tkalich -5
Tkalich
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Mykhalchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkalich form (0%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMykhalchenko 1.363 / Tkalich 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Mykhalchenko)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276294
Mykhalchenko1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 07)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 54 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Tkalich3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 29 days ago (Sep 12) · back after a break
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 29 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMykhalchenko7wins
AwayTkalich3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMykhalchenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMykhalchenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayTkalich33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mykhalchenko7Tkalich3n = 10Mykhalchenko took 7 of 10
S2Mykhalchenko6Tkalich4n = 10Mykhalchenko took 6 of 10
S3Mykhalchenko5Tkalich5n = 10split evenly
S4Mykhalchenko8Tkalich0n = 8Mykhalchenko took 8 of 8
S5Mykhalchenko1Tkalich3n = 4Tkalich took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMykhalchenkoTkalichM − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.035.0+6.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMykhalchenkoTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 212 vs 103 / 24757.6%41.7%122 / 212 vs 103 / 247Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.335.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MykhalchenkoMykhalchenko 1.36/Tkalich 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Mykhalchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mykhalchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 06:05V. Mykhalchenko331111113M. Tkalich165650
WSep 12 · 05:00V. Mykhalchenko4311912113M. Tkalich358111061
WSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko561351611113M. Tkalich55111118782
WSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko3961111113M. Tkalich26115551
LAug 29 · 05:00V. Mykhalchenko4211491172M. Tkalich43611114113
WAug 23 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko4571512113M. Tkalich4111131071
LAug 22 · 12:50V. Mykhalchenko3951141272M. Tkalich481151110113
LAug 9 · 12:05V. Mykhalchenko3911771132M. Tkalich43411116113
WJul 12 · 17:10V. Mykhalchenko4111118113M. Tkalich25291131
WJul 4 · 12:05V. Mykhalchenko331111113M. Tkalich186660
V. Mykhalchenko10
WOct 11 · 09:35O. Ponomarenko1.5771111402V. Mykhalchenko2.2511781123WOct 11 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.2811116113O. Riabuha3.50941191WOct 11 · 07:35K. Tsoi5.50851161V. Mykhalchenko1.1311116113WOct 7 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.221111113O. Efimov4.003660WOct 7 · 17:00D. Kunchurov2.639911131V. Mykhalchenko1.4411119153LOct 7 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko1.441112511113V. Mykhalchenko2.6341411572WOct 7 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko1.53113115113O. Miklukha2.3871171172LOct 7 · 13:00O. Stopin1.2511911113V. Mykhalchenko3.75911931LOct 3 · 12:05S. Osipov1.251111113V. Mykhalchenko3.758450WOct 3 · 10:35V. Mykhalchenko2.75111153113P. Ostrovskyi1.4027111192
M. Tkalich10
LOct 11 · 08:05O. Ponomarenko1.401111113M. Tkalich2.755690LOct 11 · 07:05M. Tkalich2.5011880D. Kunchurov1.501311103LSep 12 · 11:30S. Kuzko2.5081111113M. Tkalich1.50111891LSep 12 · 10:00M. Tkalich2.108760D. Kunchurov1.671111113LSep 12 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.001112117113M. Tkalich1.1491481182LSep 12 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.571111113M. Tkalich2.255780LSep 12 · 05:00V. Mykhalchenko1.4011912113M. Tkalich2.758111061WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782
Upcoming Matches
V. Mykhalchenko
M. Tkalich
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.