TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Ruzicka vs Tomas Palan 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 41 - B1 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191171214118––
Tomas Palan
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:30 and never touched: 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Palan to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Tomas Palan below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 83 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Tomas Palan at 66.3%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 1–0 Tomas Palan Tomas Palan has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:3066.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 5.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Palan
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1623 vs Palan 1567
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 40% vs Palan 80%
Palan
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 30% vs Palan 70%
Palan
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -2 · Palan -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Palan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 2.75 / Palan 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Palan)-5.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13271984
Ruzicka2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 06)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog57% won 53 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back33% 14 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Palan1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeRuzicka1wins
AwayPalan0wins
Ruzicka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricRuzickaPalanR − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match45.038.0+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaPalanBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 482 vs 5 / 1052.9%50%255 / 482 vs 5 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PalanRuzicka 2.75/Palan 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Palan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 10 · 06:35J. Ruzicka45111112113T. Palan38971481
J. Ruzicka10
LOct 10 · 07:35M. Holub2.001115613123J. Ruzicka1.7313131111102LOct 6 · 17:33R. Neterda1.8011121111173J. Ruzicka1.91131439152LOct 6 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.57541341R. Neterda2.25111111113WOct 6 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.4011177113M. Flesar2.755151141WOct 6 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.441111113J. Manhal Jr2.638680LOct 4 · 17:03J. Ruzicka1.33611111552M. Flesar3.251113613113LOct 4 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.8314120J. Lovl1.831111143WOct 4 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.441111113M. Flesar2.638570LOct 4 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.44691191M. Chmelicek2.6311117113LOct 1 · 13:44P. Chvatal2.001112613113J. Ruzicka1.73910111562
T. Palan10
LOct 10 · 07:05T. Bartik1.611511113T. Palan2.2013960LOct 5 · 09:38T. Palan1.53119351T. Trnka2.3891111113WOct 5 · 08:05T. Palan2.001111113T. Trnka1.737770WOct 5 · 07:05T. Palan1.7311115113R. Neterda2.00891171WOct 5 · 06:05T. Palan1.611111011113O. Pros2.2091112662WSep 27 · 17:05R. Fnukal1.671111147102T. Palan2.10951611123WSep 27 · 16:35D. Hons2.10911551T. Palan1.6711911113LSep 27 · 15:35T. Palan2.001311111142P. Zivny1.73159133113LSep 27 · 14:05R. Fnukal2.501111113T. Palan1.506480WFeb 14 · 14:30T. Trnka—117971T. Palan—81111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Ruzicka
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T. Palan
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