TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Palan vs Ondrej Pros 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Tomas Palan
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191111012116116
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:01 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Palan to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Palan above · Ondrej Pros below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 88 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Tomas Palan at 57.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Palan 1–0 Ondrej Pros Ondrej Pros has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0157.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Palan
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Palan 1665 vs Pros 1391
Palan
Correct
both rated, 274 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Palan 60% vs Pros 40%
Palan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Palan 60% vs Pros 30%
Palan
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Palan +2 · Pros -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Palan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPalan 1.615 / Pros 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Palan)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13245707
Palan1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Pros2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 38 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePalan1wins
AwayPros0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderPalan leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPalanProsPalan − ProsBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match44.044.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPalanProsBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 6 vs 122 / 27366.7%44.7%4 / 6 vs 122 / 273Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match40.835.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PalanPalan 1.61/Pros 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Palan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Palan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 5 · 06:05T. Palan441111011113O. Pros4491112662
T. Palan10
WOct 5 · 07:05T. Palan1.7311115113R. Neterda2.00891171WSep 27 · 17:05R. Fnukal1.671111147102T. Palan2.10951611123WSep 27 · 16:35D. Hons2.10911551T. Palan1.6711911113LSep 27 · 15:35T. Palan2.001311111142P. Zivny1.73159133113LSep 27 · 14:05R. Fnukal2.501111113T. Palan1.506480WFeb 14 · 14:30T. Trnka—117971T. Palan—81111113WFeb 14 · 13:30T. Palan—1111113J. Vanek—6960LFeb 14 · 12:00T. Palan—811861T. Trnka—11611113WFeb 14 · 11:00P. Uher—21070T. Palan—1112113LFeb 13 · 18:30T. Palan—119911132V. Brom—711118153
O. Pros10
LOct 5 · 07:35O. Pros3.755490T. Trnka1.251111113LOct 1 · 17:24O. Pros1.831011581J. Martin1.8312711113WOct 1 · 16:05J. Martin1.504740O. Pros2.501111113LOct 1 · 15:35L. Vana1.53101111113O. Pros2.38128491LOct 1 · 14:35O. Pros1.8342110T. Krcil1.831111133WSep 29 · 13:08J. Lovl1.3371011101O. Pros3.2511128123LSep 29 · 12:35R. Neterda2.1051112113O. Pros1.671121061LSep 29 · 11:35O. Pros2.758590J. Lovl1.401111113LSep 29 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.331111113O. Pros3.253790LSep 24 · 09:05T. Trnka1.33111111113O. Pros3.25613321
Upcoming Matches
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O. Pros
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