TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Palan vs Radek Neterda 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Tomas Palan
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119511117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:02 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Palan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Palan above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Tomas Palan at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Palan 1–0 Radek Neterda Radek Neterda has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:0254.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Palan
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Palan 1665 vs Neterda 1523
Palan
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Palan 60% vs Neterda 0%
Palan
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Palan 60% vs Neterda 40%
Palan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Palan +3 · Neterda -6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Palan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPalan 1.727 / Neterda 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Palan)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13245869
Palan1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Neterda2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 47 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePalan1wins
AwayNeterda0wins
Palan leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPalanNeterdaP − NBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.035.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPalanNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 6 vs 233 / 46266.7%50.4%4 / 6 vs 233 / 462Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PalanPalan 1.73/Neterda 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Palan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Palan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 5 · 07:05T. Palan3811115113R. Neterda35891171
T. Palan10
WOct 5 · 06:05T. Palan1.611111011113O. Pros2.2091112662WSep 27 · 17:05R. Fnukal1.671111147102T. Palan2.10951611123WSep 27 · 16:35D. Hons2.10911551T. Palan1.6711911113LSep 27 · 15:35T. Palan2.001311111142P. Zivny1.73159133113LSep 27 · 14:05R. Fnukal2.501111113T. Palan1.506480WFeb 14 · 14:30T. Trnka—117971T. Palan—81111113WFeb 14 · 13:30T. Palan—1111113J. Vanek—6960LFeb 14 · 12:00T. Palan—811861T. Trnka—11611113WFeb 14 · 11:00P. Uher—21070T. Palan—1112113LFeb 13 · 18:30T. Palan—119911132V. Brom—711118153
R. Neterda10
LOct 5 · 06:35T. Trnka1.40116119123R. Neterda2.75311911102LOct 1 · 13:14J. Lovl1.831311113R. Neterda1.8311560LOct 1 · 12:35J. Lovl1.837111211113R. Neterda1.83118101362LOct 1 · 11:35R. Neterda2.109740J. Ruzicka1.671111113LOct 1 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731111113R. Neterda2.008990LSep 29 · 13:40R. Neterda2.00611851J. Ruzicka1.7311911113WSep 29 · 12:35R. Neterda2.1051112113O. Pros1.671121061WSep 29 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.671411117102R. Neterda2.101213411123WSep 29 · 10:35J. Lovl1.737780R. Neterda2.001111113WSep 28 · 17:35M. Flesar2.75915391R. Neterda1.40111311113
Upcoming Matches
T. Palan
Nothing scheduled
R. Neterda
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