TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Flesar vs Radek Neterda 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111513311911––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:34 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 82 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Radek Neterda at 65.2%
82 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 4–16 Radek Neterda Milan Flesar has won 4 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Neterda beat Flesar 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:34What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Neterda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-16 in 20
Neterda
Correct
gap of 12 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1529 vs Neterda 1563
Neterda
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 60% vs Neterda 80%
Neterda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 50% vs Neterda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -1 · Neterda +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Neterda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 2.75 / Neterda 1.40
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Neterda)-1.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13212710
Flesar2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 54 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back22% 18 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 56
Neterda1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 66 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it76% 47 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar3wins
AwayNeterda7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar60%3 of 5
AwayNeterda100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar5Neterda5n = 10split evenly
S2Flesar2Neterda8n = 10Neterda took 8 of 10
S3Flesar5Neterda5n = 10split evenly
S4Flesar1Neterda5n = 6Neterda took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarNeterdaF − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match30.037.7−7.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 448 vs 229 / 45152.2%50.8%234 / 448 vs 229 / 451Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaFlesar 2.75/Neterda 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.2%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Neterda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 16:05M. Flesar399101641R. Neterda48111214113
WSep 25 · 09:35M. Flesar391116123R. Neterda29514100
LSep 25 · 06:35M. Flesar21114421R. Neterda4071111113
LSep 23 · 08:35M. Flesar170980R. Neterda331111113
LSep 19 · 13:10M. Flesar27731161R. Neterda3911116113
LSep 19 · 11:05M. Flesar105410R. Neterda331111113
WSep 8 · 20:05M. Flesar3711411113R. Neterda32811761
LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar187650R. Neterda331111113
WSep 4 · 14:05M. Flesar51111199113R. Neterda4238111192
LJul 1 · 12:05M. Flesar4111511682R. Neterda48611911113
M. Flesar10
LSep 28 · 16:05R. Neterda1.44111214113M. Flesar2.639101641WSep 28 · 15:35T. Motacek2.008570M. Flesar1.731111113WSep 28 · 14:35M. Flesar1.571713123M. Chmelicek2.251511100LSep 28 · 13:35M. Flesar2.206870J. Ruzicka1.611111113WSep 28 · 12:35M. Flesar2.751111123D. Hons1.4042100WSep 28 · 11:05T. Trnka1.5012560M. Flesar2.501411113WSep 28 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.3651111682M. Flesar3.00116811113LSep 27 · 21:03M. Flesar1.7310780S. Kafka2.001211113LSep 27 · 20:35D. Hons1.361111113M. Flesar3.009970LSep 27 · 19:35M. Flesar2.639950P. Zivny1.441111113
R. Neterda10
WSep 28 · 16:05R. Neterda1.44111214113M. Flesar2.639101641WSep 28 · 15:05R. Neterda1.611111113M. Chmelicek2.203460LSep 28 · 14:05R. Neterda1.7311771162T. Motacek2.00511114113WSep 25 · 13:04R. Neterda1.5311911113K. Lahodny2.38811561WSep 25 · 12:35R. Neterda1.831111113K. Lahodny1.836780WSep 25 · 11:05M. Holub1.91411111172R. Neterda1.80118913113LSep 25 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.731111113R. Neterda2.007970LSep 25 · 09:35M. Flesar3.251116123R. Neterda1.33514100LSep 25 · 08:05P. Chvatal1.5711118113R. Neterda2.25571131WSep 25 · 07:35M. Rojka1.91211721R. Neterda1.8011911113
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