TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Trnka vs Radek Neterda 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1136111199111210
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:26 and never touched: 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Trnka to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Trnka above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 93 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Tomas Trnka at 67.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Trnka 6–1 Radek Neterda Radek Neterda has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2667.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Trnka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Trnka
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trnka 1614 vs Neterda 1523
Trnka
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trnka 40% vs Neterda 0%
Trnka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trnka 50% vs Neterda 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trnka -1 · Neterda -5
Neterda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Trnka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrnka 1.40 / Neterda 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Trnka)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13245870
Trnka1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite69% won 66 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it83% 49 of 59
Neterda2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 47 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeTrnka6wins
AwayNeterda1wins
3 of 7 to a deciderTrnka leads 6–1, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrnka100%4 of 4
AwayNeterda33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trnka4Neterda3n = 7Trnka took 4 of 7
S2Trnka4Neterda3n = 7Trnka took 4 of 7
S3Trnka5Neterda2n = 7Trnka took 5 of 7
S4Trnka2Neterda2n = 4split evenly
S5Trnka3Neterda0n = 3Trnka took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricTrnkaNeterdaT − NBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match38.735.0+3.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrnkaNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 295 vs 233 / 46251.9%50.4%153 / 295 vs 233 / 462Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TrnkaTrnka 1.40/Neterda 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Trnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Trnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 5 · 06:35T. Trnka49116119123R. Neterda44311911102
WJul 19 · 10:05T. Trnka45661111113R. Neterda4211118482
WJul 18 · 16:35T. Trnka331111113R. Neterda208660
WJun 27 · 13:05T. Trnka4491113113R. Neterda371171181
LJun 27 · 12:35T. Trnka229850R. Neterda331111113
WApr 18 · 14:35T. Trnka45131172123R. Neterda501171111102
WApr 18 · 11:35T. Trnka331111113R. Neterda198650
T. Trnka10
WOct 5 · 07:35O. Pros3.755490T. Trnka1.251111113LOct 4 · 13:34O. Stehlik1.61118311113T. Trnka2.2071111242WOct 4 · 12:35T. Trnka1.281111113M. Holub3.508640LOct 4 · 11:05M. Mastera1.44159119113T. Trnka2.63131171192WOct 4 · 10:35O. Stehlik1.44111189102T. Trnka2.63931111123LSep 29 · 17:35J. Ruzicka1.611111113T. Trnka2.205360WSep 29 · 16:05T. Beran2.10142641T. Trnka1.67121111113WSep 29 · 15:35S. Kafka2.50711781T. Trnka1.5011911113LSep 29 · 14:35T. Trnka2.20871191J. Ruzicka1.6111115113WSep 28 · 13:05T. Trnka1.619111114113D. Hons2.2011771642
R. Neterda10
LOct 5 · 07:05T. Palan1.7311115113R. Neterda2.00891171LOct 1 · 13:14J. Lovl1.831311113R. Neterda1.8311560LOct 1 · 12:35J. Lovl1.837111211113R. Neterda1.83118101362LOct 1 · 11:35R. Neterda2.109740J. Ruzicka1.671111113LOct 1 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731111113R. Neterda2.008990LSep 29 · 13:40R. Neterda2.00611851J. Ruzicka1.7311911113WSep 29 · 12:35R. Neterda2.1051112113O. Pros1.671121061WSep 29 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.671411117102R. Neterda2.101213411123WSep 29 · 10:35J. Lovl1.737780R. Neterda2.001111113WSep 28 · 17:35M. Flesar2.75915391R. Neterda1.40111311113
Upcoming Matches
T. Trnka
Nothing scheduled
R. Neterda
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