TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Stanislav Kafka vs Tomas Trnka 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Stanislav Kafka
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119711811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:24 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Trnka to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingStanislav Kafka above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Tomas Trnka at 62.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Stanislav Kafka 0–2 Tomas Trnka Stanislav Kafka has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:24What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Trnka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kafka 1578 vs Trnka 1569
Kafka
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kafka 20% vs Trnka 40%
Trnka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kafka 40% vs Trnka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kafka -1 · Trnka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Trnka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKafka 2.50 / Trnka 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Trnka)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13215763
Kafka2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Trnka1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 63 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it83% 47 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKafka0wins
AwayTrnka2wins
Trnka leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricKafkaTrnkaK − TBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match19.533.0−13.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKafkaTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 106 vs 147 / 28661.3%51.4%65 / 106 vs 147 / 286Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TrnkaKafka 2.50/Trnka 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Trnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Trnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LFeb 19 · 16:05S. Kafka247980T. Trnka331111113
LFeb 13 · 20:35S. Kafka153750T. Trnka331111113
S. Kafka10
WSep 29 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.7378110S. Kafka2.001111133LSep 29 · 14:05T. Beran1.671113113S. Kafka2.1041160WSep 27 · 21:03M. Flesar1.7310780S. Kafka2.001211113LSep 27 · 20:05S. Kafka1.918810P. Zivny1.801111113LSep 27 · 19:05S. Kafka1.806670D. Hons1.911111113LSep 27 · 18:05S. Kafka1.4454100M. Flesar2.631111123WSep 11 · 21:03S. Kafka1.831111113R. Vosyka1.839890WSep 11 · 20:05S. Kafka2.3891111113R. Vosyka1.53115471LSep 11 · 19:05S. Kafka1.6111117482J. Martin2.20861111113LSep 11 · 18:05S. Kafka1.6157100D. Hons2.201111123
T. Trnka10
WSep 29 · 16:05T. Beran2.10142641T. Trnka1.67121111113LSep 29 · 14:35T. Trnka2.20871191J. Ruzicka1.6111115113WSep 28 · 13:05T. Trnka1.619111114113D. Hons2.2011771642LSep 28 · 12:05T. Trnka1.836590J. Ruzicka1.831111113LSep 28 · 11:05T. Trnka1.5012560M. Flesar2.501411113WSep 28 · 10:05T. Trnka1.6711119113D. Hons2.10751171WSep 24 · 09:05T. Trnka1.33111111113O. Pros3.25613321LSep 24 · 08:05T. Trnka1.44711581P. Chvatal2.6311511113LSep 24 · 07:05T. Trnka1.503290M. Flesar2.501111113WSep 24 · 06:05T. Trnka1.531111113O. Pros2.388790
Upcoming Matches
S. Kafka
Nothing scheduled
T. Trnka
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