TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Ruzicka vs Tomas Trnka 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115113116––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:29 and never touched: 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 47 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Jan Ruzicka at 57.4%
47 points played in total.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 13–9 Tomas Trnka Tomas Trnka has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Ruzicka beat Trnka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:29What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-9 in 22
Ruzicka
Correct
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1660 vs Trnka 1595
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 80% vs Trnka 60%
Ruzicka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 80% vs Trnka 50%
Ruzicka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -1 · Trnka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Ruzicka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.61 / Trnka 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Ruzicka)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13218098
Ruzicka1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 97 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it93% 55 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it85% 77 of 91
Trnka2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 22 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back15% 5 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka7wins
AwayTrnka3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka85.7%6 of 7
AwayTrnka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka7Trnka3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S2Ruzicka7Trnka3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S3Ruzicka6Trnka4n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S4Ruzicka6Trnka2n = 8Ruzicka took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaTrnkaR − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.434.0+4.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 468 vs 149 / 28853%51.7%248 / 468 vs 149 / 288Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.61/Trnka 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 14:35J. Ruzicka3811115113T. Trnka35871191
WSep 28 · 12:05J. Ruzicka331111113T. Trnka206590
LSep 20 · 08:35J. Ruzicka29911181T. Trnka4111811113
LSep 3 · 17:03J. Ruzicka4411971162T. Trnka39211114113
LSep 3 · 14:35J. Ruzicka4371111592T. Trnka50118911113
WSep 1 · 16:35J. Ruzicka4211119113T. Trnka35981171
WJul 26 · 08:05J. Ruzicka341211113T. Trnka2110740
WJul 25 · 07:05J. Ruzicka3911611113T. Trnka31911831
WJun 27 · 10:35J. Ruzicka4011612113T. Trnka335111071
WJun 26 · 15:05J. Ruzicka4281111123T. Trnka351168101
J. Ruzicka10
LSep 29 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.7378110S. Kafka2.001111133WSep 29 · 15:05T. Beran1.734690J. Ruzicka2.001111113WSep 29 · 14:35T. Trnka2.20871191J. Ruzicka1.6111115113WSep 29 · 13:40R. Neterda2.00611851J. Ruzicka1.7311911113WSep 29 · 12:05J. Ruzicka2.20117911113J. Lovl1.6181111252LSep 29 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.671411117102R. Neterda2.101213411123WSep 29 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.331111113O. Pros3.253790WSep 28 · 13:35M. Flesar2.206870J. Ruzicka1.611111113WSep 28 · 12:05T. Trnka1.836590J. Ruzicka1.831111113WSep 28 · 11:35D. Hons2.20116671J. Ruzicka1.6141111113
T. Trnka10
WSep 29 · 16:05T. Beran2.10142641T. Trnka1.67121111113WSep 29 · 15:35S. Kafka2.50711781T. Trnka1.5011911113LSep 29 · 14:35T. Trnka2.20871191J. Ruzicka1.6111115113WSep 28 · 13:05T. Trnka1.619111114113D. Hons2.2011771642LSep 28 · 12:05T. Trnka1.836590J. Ruzicka1.831111113LSep 28 · 11:05T. Trnka1.5012560M. Flesar2.501411113WSep 28 · 10:05T. Trnka1.6711119113D. Hons2.10751171WSep 24 · 09:05T. Trnka1.33111111113O. Pros3.25613321LSep 24 · 08:05T. Trnka1.44711581P. Chvatal2.6311511113LSep 24 · 07:05T. Trnka1.503290M. Flesar2.501111113
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