TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yevhen Skorobahatyi vs Maksym Tiutiunnyk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111181210116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:36 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tiutiunnyk to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYevhen Skorobahatyi above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 76 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Maksym Tiutiunnyk at 63.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Yevhen Skorobahatyi 3–14 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Yevhen Skorobahatyi has won 3 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3663.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 0.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-14 in 17
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
gap of 11 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorobahatyi 1510 vs Tiutiunnyk 1600
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorobahatyi 40% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorobahatyi 20% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorobahatyi +1 · Tiutiunnyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Tiutiunnyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tiutiunnyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorobahatyi 2.25 / Tiutiunnyk 1.571
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Tiutiunnyk)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13270600
Skorobahatyi2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Oct 03) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 15 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back10% 2 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Tiutiunnyk1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Oct 01) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 68 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it80% 39 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorobahatyi2wins
AwayTiutiunnyk8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTiutiunnyk leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorobahatyi25%1 of 4
AwayTiutiunnyk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorobahatyi4Tiutiunnyk6n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 6 of 10
S2Skorobahatyi4Tiutiunnyk6n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 6 of 10
S3Skorobahatyi3Tiutiunnyk7n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 7 of 10
S4Skorobahatyi3Tiutiunnyk3n = 6split evenly
S5Skorobahatyi1Tiutiunnyk3n = 4Tiutiunnyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorobahatyiTiutiunnykS − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.438.2−4.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorobahatyiTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 251 vs 206 / 41645.4%49.5%114 / 251 vs 206 / 416Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TiutiunnykSkorobahatyi 2.25/Tiutiunnyk 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Tiutiunnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skorobahatyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 12 · 15:10Y. Skorobahatyi4511791172M. Tiutiunnyk45811114113
LJun 20 · 14:10Y. Skorobahatyi181890M. Tiutiunnyk331111113
LApr 26 · 08:00Y. Skorobahatyi4311751192M. Tiutiunnyk45711115113
WApr 18 · 14:40Y. Skorobahatyi331111113M. Tiutiunnyk196760
LJun 18 · 10:40Y. Skorobahatyi341011671M. Tiutiunnyk4212811113
WJun 14 · 15:10Y. Skorobahatyi481011115113M. Tiutiunnyk4612971172
LMay 25 · 09:30Y. Skorobahatyi218760M. Tiutiunnyk331111113
LMay 24 · 13:40Y. Skorobahatyi3611115452M. Tiutiunnyk48781111113
LMay 4 · 08:30Y. Skorobahatyi235990M. Tiutiunnyk331111113
Y. Skorobahatyi10
WOct 10 · 12:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.73111110973V. Evtodiy2.0017121162WOct 3 · 16:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.6711811113R. Pomin2.10911791LOct 3 · 15:10Y. Skorobahatyi2.008111151A. Droshchynskyi1.7311138113LOct 3 · 13:40Y. Skorobahatyi2.381112771A. Zozulia1.5371411113LOct 3 · 12:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.61951191Y. Holoborodko2.2011116113WOct 3 · 10:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.731111113O. Kuzyshyn2.004380LSep 16 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn2.251171210113Y. Skorobahatyi1.57411101272LSep 16 · 16:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.50612111162Y. Holoborodko2.50111437113LSep 16 · 14:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.91117127102D. Habrelyan1.809111011123LSep 16 · 13:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.5311116862V. Merzlikin2.38641111113
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WOct 10 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi1.3612261152M. Tiutiunnyk3.00101111663WOct 1 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko2.006880M. Tiutiunnyk1.731111113LOct 1 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.759950V. Maksuta1.401111113LOct 1 · 14:10E. Hrytsenko1.8311117113M. Tiutiunnyk1.83741161LOct 1 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.501111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.505840WOct 1 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.4471060M. Tiutiunnyk2.631112113WSep 30 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.731281111113Y. Holoborodko2.00101113992LSep 30 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.531111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.386590LSep 30 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn1.6791111123M. Tiutiunnyk2.101149101LSep 30 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.67811131262D. Habrelyan2.101181510113
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