TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yevhen Skorobahatyi vs Andrii Droshchynskyi 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111113118511––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Droshchynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYevhen Skorobahatyi above · Andrii Droshchynskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 78 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Andrii Droshchynskyi at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Yevhen Skorobahatyi 4–0 Andrii Droshchynskyi Andrii Droshchynskyi has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:0954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Droshchynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Skorobahatyi
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorobahatyi 1522 vs Droshchynskyi 1731
Droshchynskyi
Correct
both rated, 209 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorobahatyi 20% vs Droshchynskyi 100%
Droshchynskyi
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorobahatyi 10% vs Droshchynskyi 80%
Droshchynskyi
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorobahatyi -2 · Droshchynskyi +7
Droshchynskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Droshchynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Droshchynskyi form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorobahatyi 2.00 / Droshchynskyi 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Droshchynskyi)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234583
Skorobahatyi2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back9% 2 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Droshchynskyi1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 81 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it90% 60 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it77% 69 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSkorobahatyi4wins
AwayDroshchynskyi0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderSkorobahatyi leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorobahatyi100%4 of 4
AwayDroshchynskyin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorobahatyi4Droshchynskyi0n = 4Skorobahatyi took 4 of 4
S2Skorobahatyi2Droshchynskyi2n = 4split evenly
S3Skorobahatyi3Droshchynskyi1n = 4Skorobahatyi took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSkorobahatyiDroshchynskyiS − DBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match40.031.2+8.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorobahatyiDroshchynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 249 vs 140 / 23945.4%58.6%113 / 249 vs 140 / 239Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DroshchynskyiSkorobahatyi 2.00/Droshchynskyi 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Droshchynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Droshchynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 12 · 13:40Y. Skorobahatyi51119911113A. Droshchynskyi4561111982
WJul 25 · 16:40Y. Skorobahatyi351111133A. Droshchynskyi2393110
WJun 21 · 08:00Y. Skorobahatyi4111811113A. Droshchynskyi30611851
WApr 11 · 08:20Y. Skorobahatyi331111113A. Droshchynskyi279990
Y. Skorobahatyi10
LOct 3 · 13:40Y. Skorobahatyi2.381112771A. Zozulia1.5371411113LOct 3 · 12:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.61951191Y. Holoborodko2.2011116113WOct 3 · 10:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.731111113O. Kuzyshyn2.004380LSep 16 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn2.251171210113Y. Skorobahatyi1.57411101272LSep 16 · 16:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.50612111162Y. Holoborodko2.50111437113LSep 16 · 14:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.91117127102D. Habrelyan1.809111011123LSep 16 · 13:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.5311116862V. Merzlikin2.38641111113LSep 16 · 11:10Y. Skorobahatyi2.2510940A. Zozulia1.571211113LSep 12 · 16:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.50137751V. Merzlikin2.50111111113LSep 12 · 15:10Y. Skorobahatyi2.5011791172M. Tiutiunnyk1.50811114113
A. Droshchynskyi10
WOct 3 · 14:10A. Droshchynskyi1.3091411113Y. Holoborodko3.401112941WOct 3 · 13:10R. Pomin2.2011101031A. Droshchynskyi1.6141212113WOct 3 · 11:40A. Droshchynskyi1.7311117143A. Zozulia2.007311121WSep 27 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.1711911113Y. Makovka4.50511761WSep 27 · 09:00O. Blashkun2.638880A. Droshchynskyi1.441111113WSep 27 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.3011119113O. Varlamov3.40951131WSep 27 · 07:00Y. Bondarenko1.80911128102A. Droshchynskyi1.911191011123LSep 27 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83991161O. Zhyrnov1.8311117113LSep 26 · 16:40A. Droshchynskyi1.44481151V. Ishchuk2.6311114113WSep 26 · 15:10A. Droshchynskyi1.3611117113M. Tiutiunnyk3.00971171
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