Marek Bereiter vs Alfred Rinka 3-0

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava

Played Oct 10Finished

Marek Bereiter

Home

1.50

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

115115114––––

Alfred Rinka

Away

2.50

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:47 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%

Graded at full time

Marek Bereiter to win

62.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingMarek Bereiter above · Alfred Rinka below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 11-5

Set 3 · 11-4

Point 47 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Marek Bereiter at 62.5%

47 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 13:47

62.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50

short by 4.2pp

66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Bereiter

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Bereiter 1622 vs Rinka 1599

Bereiter

Correct

both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Bereiter 40% vs Rinka 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Bereiter 30% vs Rinka 30%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Bereiter -2 · Rinka -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Bereiter) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Bereiter form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBereiter 1.50 / Rinka 2.50

Signal prob.63% / 38%

Edge (Bereiter)-4.2pp (anti-value)

Czech Liga Pro · #13268193

Bereiter1.50

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite57% won 17 of 30

Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6

Up 1–0, closes it86% 12 of 14

Rinka2.50

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog42% won 19 of 45

Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27

Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricBereiterRinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 72 vs 45 / 8952.8%50.6%38 / 72 vs 45 / 89Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Bereiter

Bereiter 1.50/Rinka 2.50

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

62.5%

Bereiter · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Bereiter won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

M. Bereiter10