TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vladimir Adamczyk vs Alfred Rinka 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911911114113117
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Adamczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Adamczyk above · Alfred Rinka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 87 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Vladimir Adamczyk at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Adamczyk 4–0 Alfred Rinka Alfred Rinka has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Adamczyk beat Rinka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Adamczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Adamczyk
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamczyk 1647 vs Rinka 1608
Adamczyk
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamczyk 80% vs Rinka 40%
Adamczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamczyk 80% vs Rinka 40%
Adamczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamczyk +3 · Rinka -1
Adamczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Adamczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamczyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamczyk 1.727 / Rinka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamczyk)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264679
Adamczyk1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 58 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it81% 46 of 57
Rinka2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 19 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeAdamczyk4wins
AwayRinka0wins
2 of 4 to a deciderAdamczyk leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamczyk2Rinka2n = 4split evenly
S2Adamczyk4Rinka0n = 4Adamczyk took 4 of 4
S3Adamczyk2Rinka2n = 4split evenly
S4Adamczyk2Rinka2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricAdamczykRinkaA − RBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match44.839.5+5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamczykRinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 243 vs 45 / 8855.1%51.1%134 / 243 vs 45 / 88Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamczykAdamczyk 1.73/Rinka 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adamczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 8 · 12:30V. Adamczyk49911117113A. Rinka4711791192
WOct 6 · 08:30V. Adamczyk485111110113A. Rinka4511491292
WJul 13 · 13:30V. Adamczyk4211119113A. Rinka33961171
WJul 13 · 12:30V. Adamczyk4011117113A. Rinka33681181
V. Adamczyk10
WOct 8 · 12:30V. Adamczyk1.73911117113A. Rinka2.0011791192WOct 8 · 11:00V. Adamczyk2.005111111113J. Schwan1.7311913592WOct 8 · 10:00J. Levicky2.20121161682V. Adamczyk1.611491114113LOct 7 · 17:30V. Adamczyk1.9051111101J. Schwan1.8011139123WOct 7 · 16:30J. Schwan1.5711860V. Adamczyk2.251311113WOct 7 · 15:30V. Adamczyk2.20811119113A. Walek1.6111781172LOct 7 · 14:30J. Stoch1.531111910113V. Adamczyk2.3869111272WOct 6 · 09:30V. Adamczyk1.90138411113R. Skacelik1.80111111782WOct 6 · 08:30V. Adamczyk1.675111110113A. Rinka2.1011491292WOct 6 · 07:00V. Adamczyk1.571111113S. Byrtus2.258560
A. Rinka10
LOct 8 · 12:30V. Adamczyk1.73911117113A. Rinka2.0011791192WOct 8 · 11:30A. Rinka1.57951111113J. Levicky2.2511118952WOct 8 · 10:30J. Schwan1.83111111682A. Rinka1.83913511113LOct 6 · 09:04S. Byrtus2.105121113113A. Rinka1.67111081562LOct 6 · 08:30V. Adamczyk1.675111110113A. Rinka2.1011491292WOct 6 · 07:30A. Rinka2.20116711113R. Skacelik1.6191111782LOct 6 · 06:30S. Byrtus1.831112143A. Rinka1.83910120LSep 24 · 09:30A. Rinka2.1055110J. Snr1.671111133LSep 24 · 08:00A. Rinka2.1011912922J. Snr1.675111011113WSep 24 · 07:30D. Oborny2.25811371A. Rinka1.5711811113
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