TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Michal Stibor vs Lukas Adam 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121012811––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:03 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Adam to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Lukas Adam below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 63 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Lukas Adam at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 27–23 Lukas Adam Lukas Adam has won 23 of their 50 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 10:0354.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 4.0pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stibor
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-23 in 50
Stibor
Wrong
gap of 4 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1659 vs Adam 1740
Adam
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 20% vs Adam 60%
Adam
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 20% vs Adam 60%
Adam
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor -1 · Adam +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Adam) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stibor form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 1.727 / Adam 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adam)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13261432
Stibor1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 61 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it80% 40 of 50
Adam2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 07)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 56 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStibor5wins
AwayAdam5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStibor83.3%5 of 6
AwayAdam100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor6Adam4n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S2Stibor5Adam5n = 10split evenly
S3Stibor6Adam4n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S4Stibor4Adam5n = 9Adam took 5 of 9
S5Stibor2Adam3n = 5Adam took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStiborAdamS − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.440.5+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 337 vs 275 / 53152.2%51.8%176 / 337 vs 275 / 531Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamStibor 1.73/Adam 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 11:15M. Stibor561511911102L. Adam58179119123
WSep 11 · 08:43M. Stibor331111113L. Adam197750
WSep 11 · 05:15M. Stibor4111811113L. Adam36911971
LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor37681491L. Adam45111112113
WSep 3 · 05:15M. Stibor45117511113L. Adam3521111562
LAug 26 · 05:45M. Stibor35711981L. Adam4011711113
WAug 20 · 07:45M. Stibor3911611113L. Adam33711781
LAug 19 · 09:45M. Stibor4611711892L. Adam42511411113
WJul 28 · 11:45M. Stibor511411105113L. Adam49126121182
LJul 21 · 06:15M. Stibor41141111322L. Adam48166411113
M. Stibor10
LOct 8 · 11:15M. Stibor1.80761181A. Radkovsky1.9111115113LOct 8 · 09:15M. Stibor1.83731171R. Pisa1.8311117113WOct 6 · 12:13L. Dobias1.53991181M. Stibor2.3811114113LOct 6 · 11:15M. Stibor1.801171171J. Rochowanski1.9113115113LOct 6 · 10:15M. Stibor2.7521140P. Wasik1.401113113LOct 6 · 09:15M. Stibor2.259990L. Dobias1.571111113LSep 30 · 12:14M. Stibor1.83141211672L. Veigl1.831610511113LSep 30 · 11:45L. Dobias1.5791111113M. Stibor2.25113571WSep 30 · 10:45V. Burylov2.001191631M. Stibor1.7381118113LSep 30 · 09:15L. Veigl2.001111113M. Stibor1.739960
L. Adam10
WOct 8 · 11:45L. Adam1.6731113123R. Pisa2.1011311101WOct 8 · 09:45A. Radkovsky2.1012612131L. Adam1.67101114153WOct 7 · 09:00L. Adam1.67101111113M. Ullman2.10122671WOct 7 · 08:00T. Liska2.20211681L. Adam1.6111311113LOct 7 · 07:00M. Ullman2.201114113L. Adam1.6171280WOct 7 · 05:30M. Kovarik2.387650L. Adam1.531111113LOct 2 · 08:53R. Pisa2.10411711113L. Adam1.6711811572WOct 2 · 07:15L. Adam2.00119117113O. Kaderabek1.7361171182WOct 2 · 06:15L. Adam1.401114118113M. Vyskocil2.7551691182LOct 2 · 05:15L. Adam1.6751191242R. Pisa2.101191110113
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