TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Michal Stibor vs Radovan Pisa 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711311117711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:04 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadovan Pisa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 68 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Radovan Pisa at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 8–10 Radovan Pisa Michal Stibor has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:0454.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pisa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Pisa
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1669 vs Pisa 1696
Pisa
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 20% vs Pisa 60%
Pisa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 30% vs Pisa 50%
Pisa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor +1 · Pisa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pisa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stibor form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 1.833 / Pisa 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pisa)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13261526
Stibor1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Pisa1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStibor5wins
AwayPisa5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStiborn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPisa50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor2Pisa8n = 10Pisa took 8 of 10
S2Stibor6Pisa4n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S3Stibor4Pisa6n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S4Stibor7Pisa1n = 8Stibor took 7 of 8
S5Stibor2Pisa3n = 5Pisa took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStiborPisaS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.038.3+1.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 336 vs 383 / 79152.4%48.4%176 / 336 vs 383 / 791Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PisaStibor 1.83/Pisa 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pisa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 10:15M. Stibor229580R. Pisa331111113
LJul 7 · 06:15M. Stibor521111101192R. Pisa45313126113
WMay 19 · 12:43M. Stibor47711611123R. Pisa41113116102
WMay 19 · 11:45M. Stibor4011117113R. Pisa33971161
WMay 12 · 06:15M. Stibor481011115113R. Pisa4212551192
LMay 11 · 09:45M. Stibor41311101162R. Pisa45114127113
WApr 16 · 09:45M. Stibor3521111113R. Pisa32117681
WFeb 9 · 13:30M. Stibor4181111113R. Pisa31117761
LFeb 9 · 12:30M. Stibor51910121192R. Pisa471112103113
LJan 8 · 08:15M. Stibor2385100R. Pisa341111123
M. Stibor10
LOct 8 · 10:15M. Stibor1.73101080L. Adam2.001212113WOct 6 · 12:13L. Dobias1.53991181M. Stibor2.3811114113LOct 6 · 11:15M. Stibor1.801171171J. Rochowanski1.9113115113LOct 6 · 10:15M. Stibor2.7521140P. Wasik1.401113113LOct 6 · 09:15M. Stibor2.259990L. Dobias1.571111113LSep 30 · 12:14M. Stibor1.83141211672L. Veigl1.831610511113LSep 30 · 11:45L. Dobias1.5791111113M. Stibor2.25113571WSep 30 · 10:45V. Burylov2.001191631M. Stibor1.7381118113LSep 30 · 09:15L. Veigl2.001111113M. Stibor1.739960LSep 29 · 12:48L. Veigl2.20101111113M. Stibor1.61125771
R. Pisa10
WOct 6 · 08:19R. Pisa2.3871311123A. Snr1.5311115101LOct 6 · 07:15A. Snr1.5711912113R. Pisa2.256111071WOct 6 · 06:45R. Pisa1.8311119113T. Liska1.83331131WOct 6 · 05:45R. Pisa1.731111113M. Makara2.005350LOct 5 · 08:23R. Pisa3.75119841P. Wasik1.2591111113LOct 5 · 07:45R. Pisa2.0011115792V. Burylov1.73921111113LOct 5 · 06:15P. Wasik1.401111113R. Pisa2.753950WOct 5 · 05:45L. Dobias1.57129111062R. Pisa2.251011412113LOct 4 · 12:55R. Pisa2.109450L. Heinzl1.671111113WOct 4 · 11:45L. Heinzl1.73510111192R. Pisa2.00111277113
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