TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Adam vs Radovan Pisa 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
31111313111210––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:37 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeLukas Adam to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 74 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Lukas Adam at 55.8%
74 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 27–24 Radovan Pisa Radovan Pisa has won 24 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3755.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Adam
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-24 in 51
Adam
Correct
gap of 3 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1759 vs Pisa 1715
Adam
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 80% vs Pisa 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 70% vs Pisa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam +4 · Pisa +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Adam) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pisa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 1.666 / Pisa 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Adam)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260923
Adam1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 65 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it88% 45 of 51
Pisa2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 84 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back29% 29 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam4wins
AwayPisa6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPisa leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam80%4 of 5
AwayPisa100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam5Pisa5n = 10split evenly
S2Adam4Pisa6n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S3Adam4Pisa6n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S4Adam3Pisa3n = 6split evenly
S5Adam1Pisa2n = 3Pisa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamPisaA − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.637.4−2.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 533 vs 385 / 79352%48.6%277 / 533 vs 385 / 793Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamAdam 1.67/Pisa 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 08:53L. Adam4211811572R. Pisa44411711113
LOct 2 · 05:15L. Adam4151191242R. Pisa521191110113
WSep 24 · 20:48L. Adam48116128113R. Pisa43711101142
WSep 24 · 17:45L. Adam4611119153R. Pisa323511131
LSep 21 · 12:49L. Adam168530R. Pisa331111113
LSep 21 · 09:45L. Adam2615560R. Pisa391711113
LSep 7 · 10:45L. Adam331061161R. Pisa4312119113
LAug 28 · 07:00L. Adam2156100R. Pisa341111123
WAug 11 · 05:45L. Adam4011117113R. Pisa34771191
WAug 10 · 11:15L. Adam331111113R. Pisa207760
L. Adam10
WOct 8 · 10:15M. Stibor1.73101080L. Adam2.001212113WOct 8 · 09:45A. Radkovsky2.1012612131L. Adam1.67101114153WOct 7 · 09:00L. Adam1.67101111113M. Ullman2.10122671WOct 7 · 08:00T. Liska2.20211681L. Adam1.6111311113LOct 7 · 07:00M. Ullman2.201114113L. Adam1.6171280WOct 7 · 05:30M. Kovarik2.387650L. Adam1.531111113LOct 2 · 08:53R. Pisa2.10411711113L. Adam1.6711811572WOct 2 · 07:15L. Adam2.00119117113O. Kaderabek1.7361171182WOct 2 · 06:15L. Adam1.401114118113M. Vyskocil2.7551691182LOct 2 · 05:15L. Adam1.6751191242R. Pisa2.101191110113
R. Pisa10
WOct 8 · 10:45A. Radkovsky2.2511691192R. Pisa1.57511116113WOct 8 · 09:15M. Stibor1.83731171R. Pisa1.8311117113WOct 6 · 08:19R. Pisa2.3871311123A. Snr1.5311115101LOct 6 · 07:15A. Snr1.5711912113R. Pisa2.256111071WOct 6 · 06:45R. Pisa1.8311119113T. Liska1.83331131WOct 6 · 05:45R. Pisa1.731111113M. Makara2.005350LOct 5 · 08:23R. Pisa3.75119841P. Wasik1.2591111113LOct 5 · 07:45R. Pisa2.0011115792V. Burylov1.73921111113WOct 2 · 08:53R. Pisa2.10411711113L. Adam1.6711811572WOct 2 · 05:15L. Adam1.6751191242R. Pisa2.101191110113
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