TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Nemecek Snr vs Karel Jirousek 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911119911119811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:40 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Nemecek Snr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Nemecek Snr above · Karel Jirousek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 99 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Jakub Nemecek Snr at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nemecek Snr 0–1 Karel Jirousek Jakub Nemecek Snr has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4054.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Snr
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Snr 1434 vs Jirousek 1479
Jirousek
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 60% vs Jirousek 20%
Snr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 40% vs Jirousek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr -2 · Jirousek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Snr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirousek form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.666 / Jirousek 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Snr)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240815
Snr1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 6 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it50% 4 of 8
Jirousek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 38 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSnr0wins
AwayJirousek1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderJirousek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSnrJirousekS − JBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match48.051.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrJirousekBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 146 vs 222 / 43041.1%51.6%60 / 146 vs 222 / 430Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.67/Jirousek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jirousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 4 · 18:00J. Snr4891191182K. Jirousek51119119113
J. Snr10
LOct 4 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.8311711113J. Snr1.83711681LOct 4 · 19:00J. Snr1.8311681152F. Kubos1.83511117113LSep 28 · 20:13S. Kalensky1.5771112113J. Snr2.251181081LSep 28 · 19:15J. Snr2.20481161S. Kalensky1.6111116113WSep 28 · 18:15J. Snr2.501311612113T. Bertho1.50158111092WSep 28 · 17:15J. Snr1.91511511123F. Kubos1.80115116102WSep 25 · 20:43T. Bertho1.3361111101J. Snr3.2511913123LSep 25 · 19:45J. Snr2.634980T. Bertho1.441111113LSep 25 · 18:15L. Krasl1.61491111113J. Snr2.2011112582WSep 25 · 17:45J. Juppa1.50511981J. Snr2.5011911113
K. Jirousek10
LOct 4 · 20:00K. Jirousek2.501171051F. Kubos1.5041112113WOct 4 · 18:30O. Karpisek1.6711411932K. Jirousek2.10611911113LSep 27 · 12:18J. Mejzlik2.00111197123K. Jirousek1.73771111102LSep 27 · 11:15K. Jirousek1.80811141262J. Hanacek1.911141214113WSep 27 · 10:15K. Jirousek1.8313711113J. Mejzlik1.831111781LSep 27 · 09:15K. Jirousek2.6381191152L. Hendrych1.44119115113LSep 25 · 20:29K. Jirousek1.28117111042J. Pina3.50711712113WSep 25 · 19:30J. Pina2.5041140K. Jirousek1.501113113WSep 25 · 19:00K. Jirousek1.7311513113J. Seeman2.008111191LSep 25 · 18:00K. Jirousek1.80781141J. Hanacek1.9111117113
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