TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Karpisek vs Jakub Nemecek Snr 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117711116118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:16 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Karpisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Karpisek above · Jakub Nemecek Snr below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Ondrej Karpisek at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Karpisek 4–2 Jakub Nemecek Snr Jakub Nemecek Snr has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:1654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Snr
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Karpisek
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpisek 1394 vs Snr 1456
Snr
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpisek 0% vs Snr 40%
Snr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpisek 30% vs Snr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpisek -5 · Snr -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Karpisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpisek 1.833 / Snr 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Karpisek)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13240245
Karpisek1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Snr1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKarpisek4wins
AwaySnr2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderKarpisek leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpisek66.7%2 of 3
AwaySnr33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpisek3Snr3n = 6split evenly
S2Karpisek3Snr3n = 6split evenly
S3Karpisek4Snr2n = 6Karpisek took 4 of 6
S4Karpisek3Snr3n = 6split evenly
S5Karpisek2Snr1n = 3Karpisek took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKarpisekSnrK − SBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match43.338.3+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpisekSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 455 vs 60 / 14446.6%41.7%212 / 455 vs 60 / 144Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KarpisekKarpisek 1.83/Snr 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Karpisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Karpisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJan 3 · 15:45O. Karpisek48612811113J. Snr43111011562
WDec 25 · 21:19O. Karpisek518111110113J. Snr4111541292
WDec 25 · 18:45O. Karpisek4312119113J. Snr311051151
LDec 13 · 13:58O. Karpisek4111611582J. Snr39211411113
WDec 13 · 12:00O. Karpisek4011513113J. Snr358111151
LNov 9 · 17:15O. Karpisek376111191J. Snr4111136113
O. Karpisek10
LOct 4 · 18:30O. Karpisek1.6711411932K. Jirousek2.10611911113LOct 4 · 17:30O. Karpisek2.25101121192F. Kubos1.57128118113LOct 1 · 20:29O. Karpisek2.50715461S. Kalensky1.50111311113LOct 1 · 20:00T. Bertho1.8311117113O. Karpisek1.83721181LOct 1 · 19:00S. Kalensky1.5771113123O. Karpisek2.2511911101WOct 1 · 17:30V. Toman2.751111111262O. Karpisek1.40913714113LSep 30 · 20:58M. Vana1.7381113113O. Karpisek2.001191181WSep 30 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2571281192O. Karpisek1.571110118113WSep 30 · 19:00O. Karpisek2.201111126113M. Vana1.6179141182LSep 30 · 18:00O. Karpisek1.449880M. Drabek2.631111113
J. Snr10
LOct 4 · 19:00J. Snr1.8311681152F. Kubos1.83511117113LOct 4 · 18:00J. Snr1.6791191182K. Jirousek2.10119119113LSep 28 · 20:13S. Kalensky1.5771112113J. Snr2.251181081LSep 28 · 19:15J. Snr2.20481161S. Kalensky1.6111116113WSep 28 · 18:15J. Snr2.501311612113T. Bertho1.50158111092WSep 28 · 17:15J. Snr1.91511511123F. Kubos1.80115116102WSep 25 · 20:43T. Bertho1.3361111101J. Snr3.2511913123LSep 25 · 19:45J. Snr2.634980T. Bertho1.441111113LSep 25 · 18:15L. Krasl1.61491111113J. Snr2.2011112582WSep 25 · 17:45J. Juppa1.50511981J. Snr2.5011911113
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