TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Nemecek Snr vs Stepan Kalensky 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411811116611––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:51 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Stepan Kalensky @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingJakub Nemecek Snr above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 68 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Stepan Kalensky at 60.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nemecek Snr 4–7 Stepan Kalensky Jakub Nemecek Snr has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:51What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kalensky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Kalensky
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1487 vs Kalensky 1513
Kalensky
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 60% vs Kalensky 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 40% vs Kalensky 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr +3 · Kalensky -1
Snr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Kalensky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 2.20 / Kalensky 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kalensky)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13208351
Snr2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 12 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back27% 4 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Kalensky1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 63 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it82% 37 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSnr3wins
AwayKalensky7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKalensky leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnr42.9%3 of 7
AwayKalensky100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr7Kalensky3n = 10Snr took 7 of 10
S2Snr4Kalensky6n = 10Kalensky took 6 of 10
S3Snr6Kalensky4n = 10Snr took 6 of 10
S4Snr3Kalensky5n = 8Kalensky took 5 of 8
S5Snr0Kalensky4n = 4Kalensky took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSnrKalenskyS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.239.8−1.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 145 vs 276 / 50942.1%54.2%61 / 145 vs 276 / 509Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskySnr 2.20/Kalensky 1.61
Hit
What we said
60.9%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Stepan Kalensky @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
1–3
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 18:30J. Snr4511812592S. Kalensky518111011113
LSep 3 · 21:13J. Snr34118871S. Kalensky3961111113
LSep 3 · 18:30J. Snr3461111242S. Kalensky48117811113
LSep 1 · 20:58J. Snr351181151S. Kalensky4271113113
LSep 1 · 18:30J. Snr4081151152S. Kalensky46114119113
WAug 26 · 18:00J. Snr361111143S. Kalensky2475120
LAug 22 · 05:45J. Snr3812610101S. Kalensky45101112123
WMar 12 · 18:30J. Snr4211911113S. Kalensky29611661
LMar 5 · 21:58J. Snr4458111192S. Kalensky46111158113
WMar 5 · 21:00J. Snr341111123S. Kalensky2899100
J. Snr10
LSep 28 · 20:13S. Kalensky1.5771112113J. Snr2.251181081WSep 28 · 18:15J. Snr2.501311612113T. Bertho1.50158111092WSep 28 · 17:15J. Snr1.91511511123F. Kubos1.80115116102WSep 25 · 20:43T. Bertho1.3361111101J. Snr3.2511913123LSep 25 · 19:45J. Snr2.634980T. Bertho1.441111113LSep 25 · 18:15L. Krasl1.61491111113J. Snr2.2011112582WSep 25 · 17:45J. Juppa1.50511981J. Snr2.5011911113LSep 22 · 20:58T. Bertho1.501111610113J. Snr2.5089111282LSep 22 · 20:00J. Snr1.913670T. Bertho1.801111113LSep 22 · 18:30S. Kalensky1.618111011113J. Snr2.2011812592
S. Kalensky10
WSep 28 · 20:13S. Kalensky1.5771112113J. Snr2.251181081WSep 28 · 18:45S. Kalensky1.919111111113F. Kubos1.8011813882LSep 28 · 17:45S. Kalensky2.1013118101T. Bertho1.67111311123WSep 22 · 20:29M. Cizek2.251091151S. Kalensky1.5712117113LSep 22 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.445131131M. Cizek2.6311157113WSep 22 · 18:30S. Kalensky1.618111011113J. Snr2.2011812592WSep 22 · 17:30S. Kalensky2.101111119113T. Bertho1.6713591182WSep 21 · 20:23F. Kubos1.80111180S. Kalensky1.911313113LSep 21 · 19:15S. Kalensky1.83711119102L. Stoces1.83118911123WSep 21 · 18:15S. Kalensky1.837111111113F. Kubos1.8311861382
Upcoming Matches
J. Snr
Nothing scheduled
S. Kalensky
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