TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Stepan Kalensky vs Tadeas Bertho 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
131111138111012––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:38 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeTadeas Bertho to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingStepan Kalensky above · Tadeas Bertho below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 89 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Tadeas Bertho at 56.2%
89 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Kalensky 9–15 Tadeas Bertho Stepan Kalensky has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:38What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Bertho
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-15 in 24
Bertho
Correct
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalensky 1525 vs Bertho 1515
Kalensky
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalensky 80% vs Bertho 20%
Kalensky
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalensky 50% vs Bertho 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalensky +1 · Bertho -3
Bertho
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Bertho) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bertho form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalensky 2.10 / Bertho 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Bertho)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13207997
Kalensky2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 22)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 47 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back29% 19 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Bertho1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 26)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 77 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it82% 61 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKalensky4wins
AwayBertho6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBertho leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalensky75%3 of 4
AwayBertho83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalensky4Bertho6n = 10Bertho took 6 of 10
S2Kalensky5Bertho5n = 10split evenly
S3Kalensky4Bertho6n = 10Bertho took 6 of 10
S4Kalensky2Bertho4n = 6Bertho took 4 of 6
S5Kalensky2Bertho2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKalenskyBerthoK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.240.3−2.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenskyBerthoBasisWin rate · lifetime281 / 517 vs 368 / 68954.4%53.4%281 / 517 vs 368 / 689Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerthoKalensky 2.10/Bertho 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Bertho · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bertho won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 22 · 17:30S. Kalensky531111119113T. Bertho4613591182
WSep 6 · 12:31S. Kalensky341112113T. Bertho2591060
LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky4441191192T. Bertho50118119113
LAug 30 · 13:15S. Kalensky35117891T. Bertho4181111113
LJul 5 · 18:30S. Kalensky259880T. Bertho331111113
LJun 14 · 18:30S. Kalensky4578111182T. Bertho49111179113
LJun 7 · 20:29S. Kalensky36911791T. Bertho4011711113
LJun 7 · 19:00S. Kalensky2461260T. Bertho361114113
WMay 3 · 18:00S. Kalensky48119116113T. Bertho4371181162
S. Kalensky10
WSep 22 · 20:29M. Cizek2.251091151S. Kalensky1.5712117113LSep 22 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.445131131M. Cizek2.6311157113WSep 22 · 18:30S. Kalensky1.618111011113J. Snr2.2011812592WSep 22 · 17:30S. Kalensky2.101111119113T. Bertho1.6713591182WSep 21 · 20:23F. Kubos1.80111180S. Kalensky1.911313113LSep 21 · 19:15S. Kalensky1.83711119102L. Stoces1.83118911123WSep 21 · 18:15S. Kalensky1.837111111113F. Kubos1.8311861382LSep 21 · 17:15S. Kalensky1.913660V. Herrmann1.801111113LSep 14 · 20:39J. Jnr1.361111143S. Kalensky3.0099120LSep 14 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.83611591R. Merkl1.8311811113
T. Bertho10
LSep 28 · 18:15J. Snr2.501311612113T. Bertho1.50158111092LSep 26 · 12:41T. Bertho1.909670T. Hanke1.80111193LSep 26 · 12:00L. Stoces1.5711812113T. Bertho2.256111071LSep 26 · 11:00V. Herrmann1.61111211113T. Bertho2.201310891WSep 26 · 09:30T. Hanke1.8011971162T. Bertho1.91811115113LSep 25 · 20:43T. Bertho1.3361111101J. Snr3.2511913123WSep 25 · 19:45J. Snr2.634980T. Bertho1.441111113WSep 25 · 18:45J. Juppa1.50611991T. Bertho2.5011911113WSep 25 · 17:15L. Krasl2.20117100T. Bertho1.611311123LSep 22 · 17:30S. Kalensky2.101111119113T. Bertho1.6713591182
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