TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Marek Cizek vs Stepan Kalensky 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Marek Cizek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012911117511––
Stepan Kalensky
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMarek Cizek above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 76 set 4, 5-11
76 points played in total.
H2H Marek Cizek 3–5 Stepan Kalensky Marek Cizek has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Cizek beat Kalensky 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kalensky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.25 / Kalensky 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kalensky)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13180439
Cizek2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 22 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back21% 10 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Kalensky1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite62% won 67 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it83% 40 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeCizek3wins
AwayKalensky5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderKalensky leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKalensky83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek2Kalensky6n = 8Kalensky took 6 of 8
S2Cizek2Kalensky6n = 8Kalensky took 6 of 8
S3Cizek6Kalensky2n = 8Cizek took 6 of 8
S4Cizek3Kalensky4n = 7Kalensky took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricCizekKalenskyC − KBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match37.541.2−3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 287 vs 280 / 51647%54.3%135 / 287 vs 280 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskyCizek 2.25/Kalensky 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 22 · 19:30M. Cizek4411157113S. Kalensky325131131
LSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek188550S. Kalensky331111113
LSep 3 · 18:00M. Cizek38113111122S. Kalensky50131178113
LSep 1 · 18:00M. Cizek358511111S. Kalensky4411119133
LAug 7 · 20:59M. Cizek32571191S. Kalensky3911116113
WAug 7 · 19:00M. Cizek4891414113S. Kalensky4411121291
LAug 3 · 18:30M. Cizek34781181S. Kalensky4111118113
WApr 17 · 18:30M. Cizek51119146113S. Kalensky47911121142
M. Cizek10
WSep 22 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.445131131M. Cizek2.6311157113WSep 22 · 19:00M. Cizek1.6716119143T. Bertho2.1014711121WSep 22 · 18:00M. Cizek1.73121111113J. Snr2.00145461LSep 17 · 21:03Z. Kuksa1.83111410113M. Cizek1.832121271LSep 17 · 19:30M. Cizek2.2010911111P. Maly1.6112118133WSep 17 · 18:30M. Cizek2.20981111133Z. Kuksa1.61111179112WSep 17 · 17:30M. Cizek1.731111113T. Bertho2.008660LSep 5 · 08:29Z. Kuksa1.80111111113M. Cizek1.91713761WSep 5 · 07:30M. Cizek2.00712118113Z. Kuksa1.73111031182LSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113
S. Kalensky10
LSep 22 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.445131131M. Cizek2.6311157113WSep 22 · 18:30S. Kalensky1.618111011113J. Snr2.2011812592WSep 22 · 17:30S. Kalensky2.101111119113T. Bertho1.6713591182WSep 21 · 20:23F. Kubos1.80111180S. Kalensky1.911313113LSep 21 · 19:15S. Kalensky1.83711119102L. Stoces1.83118911123WSep 21 · 18:15S. Kalensky1.837111111113F. Kubos1.8311861382LSep 21 · 17:15S. Kalensky1.913660V. Herrmann1.801111113LSep 14 · 20:39J. Jnr1.361111143S. Kalensky3.0099120LSep 14 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.83611591R. Merkl1.8311811113WSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113
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