TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viacheslav Yarovyi vs Stanislav Zherykhin 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118117611711611
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:51 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeStanislav Zherykhin to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Yarovyi above · Stanislav Zherykhin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Stanislav Zherykhin at 54.1%
89 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Yarovyi 2–3 Stanislav Zherykhin Viacheslav Yarovyi has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Yarovyi beat Zherykhin 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5154.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zherykhin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yarovyi 981 vs Zherykhin 1022
Zherykhin
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yarovyi 40% vs Zherykhin 0%
Yarovyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yarovyi 30% vs Zherykhin 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Yarovyi -1 · Zherykhin -8
Zherykhin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Zherykhin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zherykhin form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYarovyi 2.00 / Zherykhin 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zherykhin)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240063
Yarovyi2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 16 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back11% 5 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Zherykhin1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 13 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeYarovyi2wins
AwayZherykhin3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderZherykhin leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYarovyi33.3%1 of 3
AwayZherykhinn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yarovyi3Zherykhin2n = 5Yarovyi took 3 of 5
S2Yarovyi1Zherykhin4n = 5Zherykhin took 4 of 5
S3Yarovyi3Zherykhin2n = 5Yarovyi took 3 of 5
S4Yarovyi2Zherykhin2n = 4split evenly
S5Yarovyi1Zherykhin2n = 3Zherykhin took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricYarovyiZherykhinY − ZBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match39.643.8−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYarovyiZherykhinBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 107 vs 33 / 10028%33%30 / 107 vs 33 / 100Avg sets wonper match1.51.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZherykhinYarovyi 2.00/Zherykhin 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Zherykhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zherykhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 3 · 16:30V. Yarovyi531161411113S. Zherykhin53131112892
WAug 29 · 16:30V. Yarovyi3911611113S. Zherykhin32911931
LJul 26 · 17:20V. Yarovyi2291120S. Zherykhin351113113
LJul 26 · 15:00V. Yarovyi4616119732S. Zherykhin511441111113
LJul 12 · 13:00V. Yarovyi3812411562S. Zherykhin481011511113
V. Yarovyi10
WOct 4 · 06:30V. Yarovyi1.83731111113O. Badanin1.8311115982LOct 3 · 17:39A. Danylov1.57371111113V. Yarovyi2.2511119572WOct 3 · 16:30V. Yarovyi2.381161411113S. Zherykhin1.53131112892WOct 3 · 15:30V. Yarovyi2.2511911113R. Sveshnykov1.57311791LOct 3 · 14:00V. Yarovyi2.63114841A. Danylov1.449111183LOct 3 · 13:00V. Yarovyi6.5055100V. Saakian1.101111123LAug 30 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov1.13118812113V. Yarovyi5.50411111072LAug 30 · 08:00V. Yarovyi3.257880V. Matviichuk1.331111113WAug 30 · 06:30V. Yarovyi2.631111113A. Lysyi1.449590LAug 30 · 05:00V. Yarovyi3.7561111782S. Honcharenko1.25118911113
S. Zherykhin10
LOct 4 · 07:30O. Badanin1.537101111113S. Zherykhin2.3811124472WOct 4 · 06:00R. Sveshnykov1.1391151872S. Zherykhin5.501141116113LOct 3 · 16:30V. Yarovyi2.381161411113S. Zherykhin1.53131112892LOct 3 · 15:00S. Zherykhin1.8011811652A. Danylov1.9191181193LOct 3 · 13:30S. Zherykhin5.00561191R. Sveshnykov1.1411117113LOct 3 · 12:00S. Zherykhin4.5091111592V. Saakian1.17119711113LOct 2 · 16:30S. Zherykhin2.25611751O. Levytskyi1.5711911113LOct 2 · 15:30S. Zherykhin5.50149491R. Sveshnykov1.13121111113LOct 2 · 14:00S. Zherykhin1.53861171A. Danylov2.3811118113LOct 2 · 13:00S. Zherykhin4.5077100S. Honcharenko1.171111123
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