TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vaclav Nohejl vs Julius Didi 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111161214118118
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:28 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nohejl to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Nohejl above · Julius Didi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 99 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Vaclav Nohejl at 54.5%
99 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Nohejl 4–6 Julius Didi Vaclav Nohejl has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Nohejl beat Didi 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2854.5%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
short by 4.3pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Nohejl
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Didi
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nohejl 1463 vs Didi 1487
Didi
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nohejl 40% vs Didi 60%
Didi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nohejl 40% vs Didi 70%
Didi
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nohejl -1 · Didi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Nohejl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Didi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNohejl 1.70 / Didi 2.02
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Nohejl)-4.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13237519
Nohejl1.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 48 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it74% 36 of 49
Didi2.02
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 88 of 199
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNohejl4wins
AwayDidi6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDidi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNohejl75%3 of 4
AwayDidi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nohejl4Didi6n = 10Didi took 6 of 10
S2Nohejl4Didi6n = 10Didi took 6 of 10
S3Nohejl2Didi8n = 10Didi took 8 of 10
S4Nohejl3Didi2n = 5Nohejl took 3 of 5
S5Nohejl2Didi1n = 3Nohejl took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNohejlDidiN − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.035.9+0.1per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNohejlDidiBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 155 vs 405 / 77956.8%52%88 / 155 vs 405 / 779Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NohejlNohejl 1.70/Didi 2.02
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Nohejl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nohejl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 07:00V. Nohejl3911116113J. Didi30771151
LAug 16 · 09:28V. Nohejl219390J. Didi331111113
LAug 16 · 07:30V. Nohejl46111151182J. Didi51813118113
WAug 15 · 11:30V. Nohejl549111211113J. Didi4311814552
LJun 27 · 13:30V. Nohejl3099120J. Didi361111143
WJun 27 · 12:30V. Nohejl51119119113J. Didi3121151122
LApr 14 · 18:00V. Nohejl259880J. Didi331111113
WApr 12 · 09:28V. Nohejl361114113J. Didi2571260
LApr 12 · 06:30V. Nohejl296111111J. Didi4211711133
LApr 11 · 14:30V. Nohejl2911990J. Didi351311113
V. Nohejl10
LOct 3 · 08:00O. Fejtek1.616111110113V. Nohejl2.2011861262WOct 3 · 07:00J. Didi1.73771151V. Nohejl2.0011116113WOct 3 · 06:28V. Nohejl1.8311811113J. Steffan1.83911271LSep 21 · 21:00V. Nohejl1.4051191182M. Stefek2.75114110113LSep 21 · 20:00V. Nohejl2.0012740R. Bartunek1.731411113WSep 21 · 19:30M. Stefek2.5010980V. Nohejl1.501211113LSep 21 · 18:00V. Nohejl1.44111211792J. Moravek2.63814811113LAug 22 · 21:05V. Nohejl1.619311101L. Krok2.2011116123LAug 22 · 20:30F. Briza1.67119139143V. Nohejl2.105111111122WAug 22 · 19:30V. Nohejl2.001111113L. Krok1.735760
J. Didi10
WOct 3 · 08:30J. Didi1.88111011113J. Steffan1.82812971LOct 3 · 07:00J. Didi1.73771151V. Nohejl2.0011116113WOct 3 · 06:00O. Fejtek1.57114751J. Didi2.2571111113WOct 1 · 03:00J. Didi2.101311113R. Bartunek1.6711780LOct 1 · 02:30J. Didi1.6744121172O. Fejtek2.101111108113WOct 1 · 01:30A. Svoboda2.20561161J. Didi1.6111119113LOct 1 · 00:00J. Didi1.673119101V. Kosar2.1011811123WSep 30 · 23:00R. Bartunek1.40711100J. Didi2.751113123WSep 27 · 03:30D. Barton1.856670J. Didi1.851111113WSep 27 · 02:30J. Didi1.571411113R. Urban2.2512490
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