TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Julius Didi vs Vaclav Kosar 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3111189111012––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:59 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJulius Didi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJulius Didi above · Vaclav Kosar below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 75 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Julius Didi at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Julius Didi 4–4 Vaclav Kosar Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:5954.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Didi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Didi 1481 vs Kosar 1472
Didi
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Didi 80% vs Kosar 60%
Didi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Didi 80% vs Kosar 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Didi +3 · Kosar +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Didi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDidi 1.666 / Kosar 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Didi)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216869
Didi1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite61% won 86 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it90% 43 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 86
Kosar2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 70 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeDidi4wins
AwayKosar4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDidi66.7%2 of 3
AwayKosar60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Didi3Kosar5n = 8Kosar took 5 of 8
S2Didi3Kosar5n = 8Kosar took 5 of 8
S3Didi6Kosar2n = 8Didi took 6 of 8
S4Didi3Kosar3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricDidiKosarD − KBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match39.239.20.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDidiKosarBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 772 vs 225 / 42651.9%52.8%401 / 772 vs 225 / 426Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DidiDidi 1.67/Kosar 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Didi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kosar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 26 · 18:00J. Didi3911611113V. Kosar34711881
WJul 28 · 02:30J. Didi52912119113V. Kosar46111051192
LJul 25 · 21:29J. Didi391161661V. Kosar4771118113
WJul 25 · 20:00J. Didi4291111113V. Kosar32116961
WJul 5 · 00:00J. Didi351311113V. Kosar2211740
LMar 9 · 11:00J. Didi321010120V. Kosar381212143
LFeb 4 · 14:30J. Didi48951211112V. Kosar521111107133
LFeb 4 · 13:00J. Didi27671221V. Kosar43111110113
J. Didi10
WSep 30 · 23:00R. Bartunek1.40711100J. Didi2.751113123WSep 27 · 03:30D. Barton1.856670J. Didi1.851111113WSep 27 · 02:30J. Didi1.571411113R. Urban2.2512490LSep 27 · 01:30M. Stefek2.101612113J. Didi1.67141070WSep 27 · 00:00J. Didi1.50116514113D. Barton2.50711111252WSep 26 · 23:00V. Dolezal2.107370J. Didi1.671111113WSep 26 · 21:30M. Fisera1.678690J. Didi2.101111113WSep 26 · 20:00J. Didi1.731111119113M. Stefek2.0038131132LSep 26 · 19:30M. Fisera1.731051112113J. Didi2.00121191082WSep 26 · 18:00J. Didi2.0011611113V. Kosar1.73711881
V. Kosar10
WSep 30 · 22:30A. Svoboda1.5391211101V. Kosar2.3811146123WSep 28 · 12:58V. Kosar1.73131611113J. Novotny2.001118991WSep 28 · 12:30J. Novotny1.73331141V. Kosar2.0011117113LSep 28 · 11:30V. Kosar2.20541591L. Malek1.61111113113LSep 28 · 10:30A. Svoboda1.5711117113V. Kosar2.25921191WSep 27 · 13:31V. Kosar1.90611911133D. Horak1.80118119112WSep 27 · 12:00V. Kosar2.20115115113D. Horak1.6151181182WSep 27 · 11:30F. Briza1.671241111112V. Kosar2.10141148133WSep 27 · 10:00V. Kosar2.5011716123A. Svoboda1.5041114101LSep 26 · 18:00J. Didi2.0011611113V. Kosar1.73711881
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