TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Adam Svoboda vs Vaclav Kosar 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91112141161012––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:22 and never touched: 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Vaclav Kosar below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 85 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Adam Svoboda at 58.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 3–3 Vaclav Kosar Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:2258.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 7.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1423 vs Kosar 1462
Kosar
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 40% vs Kosar 60%
Kosar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 70% vs Kosar 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -2 · Kosar +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Svoboda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.533 / Kosar 2.375
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Svoboda)-7.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13215799
Svoboda1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 72 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it88% 50 of 57
Kosar2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 70 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSvoboda3wins
AwayKosar3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda100%3 of 3
AwayKosar100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda3Kosar3n = 6split evenly
S2Svoboda6Kosar0n = 6Svoboda took 6 of 6
S3Svoboda3Kosar3n = 6split evenly
S4Svoboda2Kosar3n = 5Kosar took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSvobodaKosarS − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.034.2+4.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaKosarBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 365 vs 224 / 42551.8%52.7%189 / 365 vs 224 / 425Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.53/Kosar 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kosar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 28 · 10:30A. Svoboda4011117113V. Kosar31921191
LSep 27 · 10:00A. Svoboda3941114101V. Kosar4611716123
WSep 9 · 03:30A. Svoboda331111113V. Kosar208570
LSep 8 · 23:00A. Svoboda4371111682V. Kosar44115611113
WApr 25 · 03:30A. Svoboda4211119113V. Kosar24561121
LApr 24 · 23:00A. Svoboda3731111662V. Kosar40114311113
A. Svoboda10
LSep 28 · 13:28L. Malek1.5312811113A. Svoboda2.381011781LSep 28 · 12:00L. Malek1.531112113A. Svoboda2.3881050WSep 28 · 11:00J. Novotny2.1011921182A. Svoboda1.67711116113WSep 28 · 10:30A. Svoboda1.5711117113V. Kosar2.25921191LSep 28 · 09:30A. Svoboda1.43911861T. Nohejl2.6011411113WSep 28 · 08:30M. Stefek2.6311710101A. Svoboda1.4491112123WSep 28 · 07:30A. Svoboda1.911111143T. Nohejl1.8097120WSep 28 · 06:28J. Moravek1.835460A. Svoboda1.831111113WSep 27 · 12:58A. Svoboda1.7361111113F. Briza2.00118771WSep 27 · 12:30A. Svoboda1.8015127113F. Briza1.9113101171
V. Kosar10
WSep 28 · 12:58V. Kosar1.73131611113J. Novotny2.001118991WSep 28 · 12:30J. Novotny1.73331141V. Kosar2.0011117113LSep 28 · 11:30V. Kosar2.20541591L. Malek1.61111113113LSep 28 · 10:30A. Svoboda1.5711117113V. Kosar2.25921191WSep 27 · 13:31V. Kosar1.90611911133D. Horak1.80118119112WSep 27 · 12:00V. Kosar2.20115115113D. Horak1.6151181182WSep 27 · 11:30F. Briza1.671241111112V. Kosar2.10141148133WSep 27 · 10:00V. Kosar2.5011716123A. Svoboda1.5041114101WSep 26 · 21:09M. Stefek1.837150V. Kosar1.831111113LSep 26 · 20:30V. Kosar2.38171141182M. Fisera1.531581113113
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