TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Bondarchuk vs Oleksandr Shkurupii 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7119111416––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:26 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bondarchuk to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Bondarchuk above · Oleksandr Shkurupii below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-16
Point 68 set 3, 14-16 · our read held Oleksandr Bondarchuk at 59.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Bondarchuk 40–31 Oleksandr Shkurupii Oleksandr Shkurupii has won 31 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2659.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Bondarchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
40-31 in 71
Bondarchuk
Wrong
gap of 9 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarchuk 1935 vs Shkurupii 1655
Bondarchuk
Wrong
both rated, 280 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarchuk 60% vs Shkurupii 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarchuk 80% vs Shkurupii 30%
Bondarchuk
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarchuk -1 · Shkurupii +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Bondarchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shkurupii form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarchuk 1.571 / Shkurupii 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Bondarchuk)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234468
Bondarchuk1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 75 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Shkurupii2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 27 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back6% 3 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarchuk6wins
AwayShkurupii4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBondarchuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarchuk62.5%5 of 8
AwayShkurupiin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarchuk8Shkurupii2n = 10Bondarchuk took 8 of 10
S2Bondarchuk6Shkurupii4n = 10Bondarchuk took 6 of 10
S3Bondarchuk7Shkurupii3n = 10Bondarchuk took 7 of 10
S4Bondarchuk4Shkurupii4n = 8split evenly
S5Bondarchuk0Shkurupii3n = 3Shkurupii took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarchukShkurupiiB − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.335.8+6.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarchukShkurupiiBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 309 vs 333 / 68657%48.5%176 / 309 vs 333 / 686Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BondarchukBondarchuk 1.57/Shkurupii 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Bondarchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Shkurupii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 30 · 08:50O. Bondarchuk341111123O. Shkurupii2477100
WJul 29 · 15:30O. Bondarchuk4211119113O. Shkurupii30821191
WJun 20 · 09:50O. Bondarchuk331111113O. Shkurupii133820
LJun 19 · 19:50O. Bondarchuk47118111342O. Shkurupii44311415113
WJun 5 · 16:20O. Bondarchuk4691111153O. Shkurupii351165131
LMay 16 · 08:50O. Bondarchuk55181169112O. Shkurupii571661111133
LMay 15 · 19:50O. Bondarchuk4412711952O. Shkurupii491011611113
LMay 9 · 10:50O. Bondarchuk351151181O. Shkurupii4013115113
WMay 8 · 21:32O. Bondarchuk4211119113O. Shkurupii29651171
WMay 8 · 20:20O. Bondarchuk4514911113O. Shkurupii371211591
O. Bondarchuk10
WOct 3 · 15:30O. Shkurupii2.255640O. Bondarchuk1.571111113LOct 3 · 13:00O. Zhurba1.36116121183O. Bondarchuk3.0041114772WOct 3 · 12:30D. Neborak3.0011911942O. Bondarchuk1.36111811113WSep 18 · 12:20O. Ivchuk4.004890O. Bondarchuk1.221111113LSep 18 · 11:20D. Neborak3.2511711113O. Bondarchuk1.33711991WSep 18 · 09:50O. Zhurba1.30111161162O. Bondarchuk3.40571113113WSep 18 · 05:50O. Pavlyuk3.00111188102O. Bondarchuk1.36891111123WSep 17 · 19:00O. Pavlyuk2.75115491O. Bondarchuk1.4051111113WSep 17 · 17:30O. Bondarchuk1.3611119113I. Hermakivskyi3.00811191WSep 17 · 15:30O. Ivchuk3.756690O. Bondarchuk1.251111113
O. Shkurupii10
LOct 3 · 15:30O. Shkurupii2.255640O. Bondarchuk1.571111113WOct 3 · 13:30D. Neborak2.008450O. Shkurupii1.73111193LOct 3 · 12:00O. Zhurba1.251111113O. Shkurupii3.759790WSep 13 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.28109111172O. Shkurupii3.50121165113WSep 13 · 08:30D. Neborak2.2091180O. Shkurupii1.611113113LSep 13 · 07:30O. Shkurupii2.508311131S. Hohenko1.5011119153LSep 13 · 06:30S. Hohenko1.501191110113O. Shkurupii2.5061171252LSep 13 · 06:00O. Shkurupii1.61119101142D. Neborak2.20811123113LSep 13 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.50451161O. Zhurba1.2811117113LSep 12 · 17:21A. Tur2.6396111363O. Shkurupii1.44111191132
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