TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148394
Played Sep 18Finished
Oleksandr Zhurba
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1151176111113611
Oleksandr Bondarchuk
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 78.5% is still 78.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhurba to win
78.5%
78.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Zhurba above · Oleksandr Bondarchuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Oleksandr Zhurba at 78.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhurba 15–3 Oleksandr Bondarchuk Oleksandr Bondarchuk has won 3 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Zhurba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-3 in 18
Zhurba
Wrong
gap of 12 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhurba 1934 vs Bondarchuk 1953
Bondarchuk
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhurba 100% vs Bondarchuk 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhurba 70% vs Bondarchuk 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhurba +6 · Bondarchuk +6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Zhurba) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarchuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhurba 1.30 / Bondarchuk 3.40
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Zhurba)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13148394
Zhurba1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 177 of 247
Up 2–0, closes it98% 107 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it87% 139 of 160
Bondarchuk3.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 22 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhurba7wins
AwayBondarchuk3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderZhurba leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhurba100%4 of 4
AwayBondarchuk50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhurba4Bondarchuk6n = 10Bondarchuk took 6 of 10
S2Zhurba5Bondarchuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Zhurba7Bondarchuk3n = 10Zhurba took 7 of 10
S4Zhurba5Bondarchuk1n = 6Zhurba took 5 of 6
S5Zhurba4Bondarchuk2n = 6Zhurba took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhurbaBondarchukZ − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.337.0+3.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhurbaBondarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime463 / 707 vs 193 / 33865.5%57.1%463 / 707 vs 193 / 338Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhurbaZhurba 1.30/Bondarchuk 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.8%
Zhurba · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bondarchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 12:30O. Zhurba2511770O. Bondarchuk351311113
LJun 27 · 10:50O. Zhurba3639111122O. Bondarchuk49111197113
LJun 26 · 19:20O. Zhurba4471181172O. Bondarchuk43115115113
WJun 12 · 19:20O. Zhurba351113113O. Bondarchuk2661190
WApr 24 · 17:50O. Zhurba529101111113O. Bondarchuk4211128832
WMar 21 · 07:20O. Zhurba48121168113O. Bondarchuk48108111182
WMar 20 · 16:20O. Zhurba48961111113O. Bondarchuk3911115842
WJan 16 · 13:10O. Zhurba341112113O. Bondarchuk2261060
WOct 3 · 09:05O. Zhurba351112123O. Bondarchuk24410100
WAug 20 · 13:10O. Zhurba46491111113O. Bondarchuk4211117672
O. Zhurba10
WSep 18 · 08:20O. Zhurba1.2013119113O. Ivchuk4.331151151WSep 18 · 06:20O. Zhurba1.20111188113D. Neborak4.3346111182WSep 17 · 18:00D. Neborak4.50118991O. Zhurba1.1771111113WSep 17 · 17:00O. Zhurba1.111111113O. Pavlyuk6.007470WSep 17 · 16:00O. Zhurba1.401111113I. Hermakivskyi2.756660WSep 17 · 14:30O. Zhurba1.40981114113O. Ivchuk2.75111131272LSep 17 · 12:30O. Zhurba1.2011770O. Bondarchuk4.331311113LSep 13 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.28109111172O. Shkurupii3.50121165113LSep 13 · 09:00O. Zhurba1.25911891S. Hohenko3.7511711113WSep 13 · 08:00D. Neborak4.5011411972O. Zhurba1.17911611113
O. Bondarchuk10
WSep 18 · 05:50O. Pavlyuk3.00111188102O. Bondarchuk1.36891111123WSep 17 · 19:00O. Pavlyuk2.75115491O. Bondarchuk1.4051111113WSep 17 · 17:30O. Bondarchuk1.3611119113I. Hermakivskyi3.00811191WSep 17 · 15:30O. Ivchuk3.756690O. Bondarchuk1.251111113WSep 17 · 13:30D. Neborak3.25911591O. Bondarchuk1.3311711113WSep 17 · 12:30O. Zhurba1.2011770O. Bondarchuk4.331311113LSep 11 · 11:25O. Bondarchuk2.501412771B. Kohut1.50121411113WSep 11 · 09:25A. Molochko1.2812771172O. Bondarchuk3.501011116113WSep 11 · 07:25D. Zeniuk2.00511481O. Bondarchuk1.7311811113LSep 11 · 06:25O. Bondarchuk3.754240N. Danyliuk1.251111113
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