TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Shkurupii vs Oleksandr Bondarchuk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611411––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:20 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bondarchuk to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Shkurupii above · Oleksandr Bondarchuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 48 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Oleksandr Bondarchuk at 59.3%
48 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Shkurupii 32–40 Oleksandr Bondarchuk Oleksandr Shkurupii has won 32 of their 72 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Shkurupii beat Bondarchuk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2059.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Bondarchuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-40 in 72
Bondarchuk
Correct
gap of 8 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shkurupii 1680 vs Bondarchuk 1909
Bondarchuk
Correct
both rated, 229 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shkurupii 80% vs Bondarchuk 40%
Shkurupii
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shkurupii 40% vs Bondarchuk 70%
Bondarchuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shkurupii +2 · Bondarchuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Bondarchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShkurupii 2.25 / Bondarchuk 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Bondarchuk)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234307
Shkurupii2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 27 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back6% 3 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 41
Bondarchuk1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite73% won 75 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShkurupii5wins
AwayBondarchuk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShkurupii66.7%2 of 3
AwayBondarchuk57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shkurupii3Bondarchuk7n = 10Bondarchuk took 7 of 10
S2Shkurupii4Bondarchuk6n = 10Bondarchuk took 6 of 10
S3Shkurupii4Bondarchuk6n = 10Bondarchuk took 6 of 10
S4Shkurupii4Bondarchuk3n = 7Shkurupii took 4 of 7
S5Shkurupii3Bondarchuk0n = 3Shkurupii took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShkurupiiBondarchukS − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.940.8−4.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShkurupiiBondarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 687 vs 176 / 31048.6%56.8%334 / 687 vs 176 / 310Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BondarchukShkurupii 2.25/Bondarchuk 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Bondarchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bondarchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 14:30O. Shkurupii381111163O. Bondarchuk3079140
LJul 30 · 08:50O. Shkurupii2477100O. Bondarchuk341111123
LJul 29 · 15:30O. Shkurupii30821191O. Bondarchuk4211119113
LJun 20 · 09:50O. Shkurupii133820O. Bondarchuk331111113
WJun 19 · 19:50O. Shkurupii44311415113O. Bondarchuk47118111342
LJun 5 · 16:20O. Shkurupii351165131O. Bondarchuk4691111153
WMay 16 · 08:50O. Shkurupii571661111133O. Bondarchuk55181169112
WMay 15 · 19:50O. Shkurupii491011611113O. Bondarchuk4412711952
WMay 9 · 10:50O. Shkurupii4013115113O. Bondarchuk351151181
LMay 8 · 21:32O. Shkurupii29651171O. Bondarchuk4211119113
O. Shkurupii10
WOct 3 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.5779140O. Shkurupii2.251111163WOct 3 · 13:30D. Neborak2.008450O. Shkurupii1.73111193LOct 3 · 12:00O. Zhurba1.251111113O. Shkurupii3.759790WSep 13 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.28109111172O. Shkurupii3.50121165113WSep 13 · 08:30D. Neborak2.2091180O. Shkurupii1.611113113LSep 13 · 07:30O. Shkurupii2.508311131S. Hohenko1.5011119153LSep 13 · 06:30S. Hohenko1.501191110113O. Shkurupii2.5061171252LSep 13 · 06:00O. Shkurupii1.61119101142D. Neborak2.20811123113LSep 13 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.50451161O. Zhurba1.2811117113LSep 12 · 17:21A. Tur2.6396111363O. Shkurupii1.44111191132
O. Bondarchuk10
LOct 3 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.5779140O. Shkurupii2.251111163LOct 3 · 13:00O. Zhurba1.36116121183O. Bondarchuk3.0041114772WOct 3 · 12:30D. Neborak3.0011911942O. Bondarchuk1.36111811113WSep 18 · 12:20O. Ivchuk4.004890O. Bondarchuk1.221111113LSep 18 · 11:20D. Neborak3.2511711113O. Bondarchuk1.33711991WSep 18 · 09:50O. Zhurba1.30111161162O. Bondarchuk3.40571113113WSep 18 · 05:50O. Pavlyuk3.00111188102O. Bondarchuk1.36891111123WSep 17 · 19:00O. Pavlyuk2.75115491O. Bondarchuk1.4051111113WSep 17 · 17:30O. Bondarchuk1.3611119113I. Hermakivskyi3.00811191WSep 17 · 15:30O. Ivchuk3.756690O. Bondarchuk1.251111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.