TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ladislav Dobias vs Volodymyr Burylov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111145111113––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Burylov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Dobias above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 75 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Volodymyr Burylov at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Dobias 27–27 Volodymyr Burylov Dead even across their 54 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Burylov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-27 in 54
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dobias 1687 vs Burylov 1694
Burylov
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dobias 20% vs Burylov 60%
Burylov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dobias 40% vs Burylov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dobias -3 · Burylov -2
Dobias
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Burylov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDobias 1.833 / Burylov 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Burylov)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13234302
Dobias1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Burylov1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDobias4wins
AwayBurylov6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBurylov leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDobias100%3 of 3
AwayBurylov85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dobias3Burylov7n = 10Burylov took 7 of 10
S2Dobias6Burylov4n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S3Dobias3Burylov7n = 10Burylov took 7 of 10
S4Dobias3Burylov4n = 7Burylov took 4 of 7
S5Dobias2Burylov1n = 3Dobias took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDobiasBurylovD − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.340.9−3.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDobiasBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 790 vs 215 / 43555.2%49.4%436 / 790 vs 215 / 435Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.139.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BurylovDobias 1.83/Burylov 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Burylov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Burylov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 18:45L. Dobias27612361V. Burylov43111011113
LSep 30 · 12:45L. Dobias2671360V. Burylov371115113
LSep 30 · 09:45L. Dobias197570V. Burylov331111113
WSep 23 · 06:15L. Dobias52117914113V. Burylov46811111242
WSep 22 · 08:18L. Dobias3911116113V. Burylov31651191
LSep 22 · 05:45L. Dobias441881171V. Burylov4920117113
LSep 18 · 19:45L. Dobias29511671V. Burylov3911611113
LSep 18 · 12:38L. Dobias47131112652V. Burylov541571011113
WSep 18 · 10:00L. Dobias371112143V. Burylov30810120
WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias53911913113V. Burylov47115111192
L. Dobias10
WOct 3 · 11:15R. Pisa2.259101171L. Dobias1.5711127113LOct 3 · 10:45L. Dobias1.671211118132L. Rulc2.10149711153LSep 30 · 20:19R. Pisa2.5011119113L. Dobias1.50881191LSep 30 · 19:15V. Grubr2.635111111113L. Dobias1.4411713982LSep 30 · 18:45L. Dobias1.80612361V. Burylov1.91111011113WSep 30 · 17:45L. Dobias1.531111113R. Pisa2.389760LSep 30 · 12:45L. Dobias1.7371360V. Burylov2.001115113WSep 30 · 11:45L. Dobias1.5791111113M. Stibor2.25113571WSep 30 · 10:15L. Veigl2.0058150L. Dobias1.731111173LSep 30 · 09:45V. Burylov1.911111113L. Dobias1.807570
V. Burylov10
WOct 3 · 11:45V. Burylov1.8081111113L. Rulc1.91117991LOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa2.00111169113V. Burylov1.7374111192LSep 30 · 20:39V. Burylov1.731081281V. Grubr2.00121110113LSep 30 · 19:45R. Pisa2.101111106113V. Burylov1.6797121192WSep 30 · 18:45L. Dobias1.80612361V. Burylov1.91111011113WSep 30 · 17:15V. Grubr2.0051111282V. Burylov1.73116711113WSep 30 · 12:45L. Dobias1.7371360V. Burylov2.001115113WSep 30 · 11:15L. Veigl2.00981111102V. Burylov1.73111196123LSep 30 · 10:45V. Burylov2.001191631M. Stibor1.7381118113WSep 30 · 09:45V. Burylov1.911111113L. Dobias1.807570
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