TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jaroslav Dohnal vs Jean-Baptiste Cousin 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113711511––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:20 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Jean-Baptiste Cousin below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 58 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 64.5%
58 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 34–15 Jean-Baptiste Cousin Jean-Baptiste Cousin has won 15 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:2064.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-15 in 49
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 19 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1511 vs Cousin 1439
Dohnal
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 100% vs Cousin 40%
Dohnal
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 60% vs Cousin 40%
Dohnal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal +5 · Cousin +2
Dohnal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Dohnal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.50 / Cousin 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Dohnal)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232569
Dohnal1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 27)
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 116 of 206
Up 2–0, closes it93% 62 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it71% 86 of 122
Cousin2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 30 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back29% 16 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal7wins
AwayCousin3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDohnal leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal66.7%4 of 6
AwayCousin25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal6Cousin4n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S2Dohnal4Cousin6n = 10Cousin took 6 of 10
S3Dohnal5Cousin5n = 10split evenly
S4Dohnal5Cousin5n = 10split evenly
S5Dohnal4Cousin0n = 4Dohnal took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalCousinD − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.9+2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalCousinBasisWin rate · lifetime395 / 672 vs 229 / 43158.8%53.1%395 / 672 vs 229 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalDohnal 1.50/Cousin 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cousin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 17:53J. Dohnal4011117113J. Cousin19331121
LSep 13 · 16:55J. Dohnal341110851J. Cousin4061211113
LAug 13 · 20:20J. Dohnal28611381J. Cousin4011711113
WJul 19 · 12:55J. Dohnal3911611113J. Cousin31711581
WJul 18 · 06:55J. Dohnal3911611113J. Cousin35611991
WJul 16 · 18:20J. Dohnal48871111113J. Cousin3311113352
WJul 10 · 20:50J. Dohnal491011116113J. Cousin4712871192
LJul 7 · 20:20J. Dohnal30114871J. Cousin3741111113
WJul 3 · 18:55J. Dohnal49159113113J. Cousin50131171182
WJul 2 · 22:10J. Dohnal481011511113J. Cousin4712811882
J. Dohnal10
LOct 2 · 20:25D. Zelezny2.005101111113J. Dohnal1.7311127892WSep 27 · 17:55J. Dohnal1.401111113J. Sebl2.759640WSep 27 · 16:20J. Dohnal1.5311117163J. Sebl2.384711141WSep 27 · 15:20J. Dohnal1.4411114113T. Rein2.63751171WSep 27 · 14:20J. Dohnal2.001111113R. Muller1.739990WSep 25 · 22:05S. Holik1.7361181142J. Dohnal2.00117114113LSep 25 · 20:55J. Dohnal1.9191070Z. Muhlhauser1.801112113LSep 25 · 19:55J. Dohnal1.8311116131D. Pasek1.8313911153LSep 25 · 18:55J. Dohnal1.839980S. Holik1.831111113LSep 20 · 18:30A. Brandtl Jr2.2012119113J. Dohnal1.611041191
J. Cousin10
WOct 2 · 19:55T. Rein2.2051130J. Cousin1.611111153WSep 29 · 22:03R. Muller1.6151171192J. Cousin2.20113118113WSep 29 · 21:25J. Cousin2.50918511123R. Muller1.501116115102LSep 29 · 19:55B. Budik1.80111214133J. Cousin1.9081016111LSep 29 · 19:25T. Rein2.3811811153J. Cousin1.536112131LSep 20 · 10:06J. Sebl1.57151111113J. Cousin2.251313941WSep 20 · 09:25V. Koutnik1.701448111J. Cousin2.02121111133LSep 20 · 08:25J. Cousin2.2311620Z. Muhlhauser1.511311113LSep 20 · 06:55J. Sebl1.601114113J. Cousin2.2071280LSep 19 · 18:02J. Cousin1.6531030C. Kratochvil2.101112113
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