TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Simon Matousch vs Zbynek Vyskocil 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11710129111214––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Matousch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Zbynek Vyskocil below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 86 set 4, 12-14 · our read held Simon Matousch at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 5–2 Zbynek Vyskocil Zbynek Vyskocil has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:1954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Matousch
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Matousch
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1389 vs Vyskocil 1474
Vyskocil
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 60% vs Vyskocil 40%
Matousch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 40% vs Vyskocil 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch -1 · Vyskocil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Matousch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 1.727 / Vyskocil 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vyskocil)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232272
Matousch1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite47% won 21 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it63% 17 of 27
Vyskocil2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As underdog47% won 47 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back30% 20 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMatousch5wins
AwayVyskocil2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMatousch leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatousch71.4%5 of 7
AwayVyskociln = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch7Vyskocil0n = 7Matousch took 7 of 7
S2Matousch4Vyskocil3n = 7Matousch took 4 of 7
S3Matousch4Vyskocil3n = 7Matousch took 4 of 7
S4Matousch2Vyskocil3n = 5Vyskocil took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMatouschVyskocilM − VBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set70+7of 7Avg pointsper match40.935.3+5.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschVyskocilBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 328 vs 285 / 58144.8%49.1%147 / 328 vs 285 / 581Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatouschMatousch 1.73/Vyskocil 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Matousch · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vyskocil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LOct 2 · 19:20S. Matousch4211109121Z. Vyskocil4471211143
LSep 16 · 19:20S. Matousch4711911882Z. Vyskocil45611611113
WSep 14 · 18:50S. Matousch4211713113Z. Vyskocil365111191
WMay 1 · 18:20S. Matousch4011126113Z. Vyskocil369101161
WMar 20 · 19:50S. Matousch49111197113Z. Vyskocil4579111172
WOct 15 · 21:40S. Matousch331111113Z. Vyskocil182970
WOct 15 · 19:40S. Matousch331111113Z. Vyskocil238960
S. Matousch10
LOct 2 · 20:20S. Matousch2.207830P. Cibik1.611111113LOct 2 · 18:20S. Matousch2.757780T. Cerveny Jr1.401111113WSep 30 · 22:00L. Vich1.738114111S. Matousch2.0011211133LSep 30 · 20:50S. Matousch2.10101111462L. Vich1.67128311113WSep 30 · 19:20P. Cibik1.5791241182S. Matousch2.251110112113WSep 30 · 18:50J. Mach1.618660S. Matousch2.201111113LSep 30 · 13:33F. Dvorak1.2812148123S. Matousch3.50101211101WSep 30 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.338540S. Matousch3.251111113LSep 30 · 11:50F. Dvorak1.3091111113S. Matousch3.40118681LSep 30 · 10:50S. Matousch4.3312512342T. Rein1.2010111011113
Z. Vyskocil10
LOct 2 · 18:50P. Cibik2.00811811123Z. Vyskocil1.73116118102WSep 23 · 21:59L. Vich1.910Z. Vyskocil1.803LSep 23 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.80117511102L. Vich1.91811116123WSep 23 · 19:20M. Dlask2.635470Z. Vyskocil1.441111113LSep 23 · 18:50M. Nemec2.5061112113Z. Vyskocil1.501181051LSep 21 · 21:25Z. Vyskocil1.4044120M. Kolbusovsky2.701111143LSep 21 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.4037100R. Zeman2.751111123LSep 21 · 19:20J. Mach2.0011811113Z. Vyskocil1.73911671WSep 21 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.381091171Z. Vyskocil1.5312114113LSep 20 · 21:25Z. Vyskocil1.8510850L. Vich1.851211113
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