TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jonas Rak vs Antonin Baros 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911117118115––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:13 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJonas Rak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJonas Rak above · Antonin Baros below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 73 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Jonas Rak at 54.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jonas Rak 3–4 Antonin Baros Jonas Rak has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1354.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1700 vs Baros 1641
Rak
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 40% vs Baros 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 40% vs Baros 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +1 · Baros +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Rak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.727 / Baros 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rak)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13232247
Rak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 18 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Baros2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeRak3wins
AwayBaros4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderBaros leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak66.7%2 of 3
AwayBaros75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak3Baros4n = 7Baros took 4 of 7
S2Rak3Baros4n = 7Baros took 4 of 7
S3Rak2Baros5n = 7Baros took 5 of 7
S4Rak4Baros2n = 6Rak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricRakBarosR − BBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match39.739.70.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 120 vs 193 / 41350%46.7%60 / 120 vs 193 / 413Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.73/Baros 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 7 · 14:10J. Rak2481150A. Baros351113113
WJul 17 · 15:10J. Rak491251011113A. Baros44101112742
WJul 9 · 14:40J. Rak4291111113A. Baros26119421
LJun 19 · 14:10J. Rak47115111372A. Baros548111311113
WMar 20 · 18:20J. Rak47111110153A. Baros385812131
LMar 20 · 15:45J. Rak31511961A. Baros3511211113
LFeb 13 · 14:45J. Rak388613111A. Baros46111111133
J. Rak10
LOct 2 · 16:15J. Skvrna1.831211113J. Rak1.8310960WOct 2 · 13:45F. Sikora1.5311101331J. Rak2.3891215113LSep 8 · 16:40P. Vicherek1.801111113J. Rak1.911960LSep 8 · 16:10J. Rak1.80116100P. Vicherek1.911311123LSep 8 · 14:40F. Sikora1.5371111123J. Rak2.381169101WSep 8 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.6148111492J. Rak2.201111712113LSep 7 · 16:48J. Rak2.205970F. Sikora1.611111113LSep 7 · 16:10J. Rak1.7391191152P. Vicherek2.00118117113WSep 7 · 14:40F. Sikora1.575121171J. Rak2.2511146113LSep 7 · 14:10A. Baros2.201113113J. Rak1.6181150
A. Baros10
LOct 2 · 15:45F. Sikora1.50141011113A. Baros2.501212391WOct 2 · 14:15A. Baros1.80711711113J. Skvrna1.9111611862LSep 28 · 20:35A. Baros1.913870P. Vicherek1.801111113LSep 28 · 19:40R. Kowal1.73411115113A. Baros2.0011361172WSep 28 · 19:10P. Vicherek1.8097111272A. Baros1.911111610113LSep 28 · 18:10A. Baros2.2511961162D. Sarganek1.57711113113LSep 23 · 20:35A. Baros1.91116691P. Vicherek1.8091111113LSep 23 · 20:10A. Baros2.006930R. Kowal1.731111113WSep 23 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.73841151A. Baros2.0011115113WSep 7 · 14:10A. Baros2.201113113J. Rak1.6181150
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