TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Antonin Baros vs Jan Skvrna 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511811––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:43 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAntonin Baros above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Baros 10–4 Jan Skvrna Jan Skvrna has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Baros beat Skvrna 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:4354.0%Our read68.5%to break even at 1.46
short by 14.5pp68.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.46 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-4 in 14
Baros
Wrong
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1623 vs Skvrna 1664
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 20% vs Skvrna 60%
Skvrna
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 30% vs Skvrna 60%
Skvrna
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros -2 · Skvrna +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skvrna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 2.50 / Skvrna 1.46
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skvrna)-14.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13233973
Baros2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 47
Skvrna1.46
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 230 of 391
Up 2–0, closes it95% 74 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it75% 159 of 212
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaros7wins
AwaySkvrna3wins
8 of 10 to a deciderBaros leads 7–3, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros50%2 of 4
AwaySkvrna16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros4Skvrna6n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S2Baros7Skvrna3n = 10Baros took 7 of 10
S3Baros6Skvrna4n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S4Baros3Skvrna6n = 9Skvrna took 6 of 9
S5Baros6Skvrna2n = 8Baros took 6 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home660%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBarosSkvrnaB − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match46.743.3+3.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 415 vs 492 / 85046.5%57.9%193 / 415 vs 492 / 850Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.740.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaBaros 2.50/Skvrna 1.46
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 14:15A. Baros47711711113J. Skvrna4211611862
WSep 23 · 14:10A. Baros46511136113J. Skvrna47116111182
WMar 23 · 19:40A. Baros491111610113J. Skvrna4368111262
WMar 16 · 21:15A. Baros541011157113J. Skvrna49126131172
WMar 2 · 19:10A. Baros49791111113J. Skvrna4111117752
LFeb 16 · 14:40A. Baros4771112892J. Skvrna511181011113
LFeb 6 · 16:45A. Baros33119761J. Skvrna4181111113
WFeb 2 · 20:40A. Baros331111113J. Skvrna167540
WJan 18 · 18:45A. Baros506111111113J. Skvrna4311713662
LJan 17 · 21:15A. Baros591181111182J. Skvrna60911713203
A. Baros10
LOct 2 · 15:45F. Sikora1.50141011113A. Baros2.501212391LOct 2 · 15:15J. Rak1.7391111113A. Baros2.00117851WOct 2 · 14:15A. Baros1.80711711113J. Skvrna1.9111611862LSep 28 · 20:35A. Baros1.913870P. Vicherek1.801111113LSep 28 · 19:40R. Kowal1.73411115113A. Baros2.0011361172WSep 28 · 19:10P. Vicherek1.8097111272A. Baros1.911111610113LSep 28 · 18:10A. Baros2.2511961162D. Sarganek1.57711113113LSep 23 · 20:35A. Baros1.91116691P. Vicherek1.8091111113LSep 23 · 20:10A. Baros2.006930R. Kowal1.731111113WSep 23 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.73841151A. Baros2.0011115113
J. Skvrna10
WOct 2 · 16:15J. Skvrna1.831211113J. Rak1.8310960LOct 2 · 14:45F. Sikora1.44125117113J. Skvrna2.63101131172LOct 2 · 14:15A. Baros1.80711711113J. Skvrna1.9111611862WSep 30 · 13:13J. Skvrna1.8081111113T. Krenek1.91117951WSep 30 · 11:45L. Slavik1.914880J. Skvrna1.801111113WSep 30 · 11:15L. Kantor2.251011441J. Skvrna1.5712511113WSep 30 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.7311119113T. Krenek2.00541191LSep 27 · 16:40J. Skvrna1.5761190D. Velky Jr2.251113113LSep 27 · 15:40J. Skvrna1.6174110F. Chaloupka2.201111133WSep 27 · 14:40J. Skvrna1.579111011113D. Velky Jr2.2511112572
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