TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Matej Holub vs Dominik Lengal 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611511118118911
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched: 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeDominik Lengal to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Dominik Lengal below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 91 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Dominik Lengal at 75.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 0–2 Dominik Lengal Matej Holub has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2975.9%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 1.9pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Lengal
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Holub 1592 vs Lengal 1798
Lengal
Correct
both rated, 207 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 0% vs Lengal 60%
Lengal
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 20% vs Lengal 70%
Lengal
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -6 · Lengal +1
Holub
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% · Strong (leans Lengal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lengal form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 3.50 / Lengal 1.285
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Lengal)-1.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13230001
Holub3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 41 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back31% 14 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Lengal1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 75 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it87% 61 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeHolub0wins
AwayLengal2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLengal leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricHolubLengalH − LBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match29.541.0−11.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubLengalBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 223 vs 180 / 29255.2%61.6%123 / 223 vs 180 / 292Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LengalHolub 3.50/Lengal 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.9%
Lengal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lengal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 2 · 11:35M. Holub4265111192D. Lengal49111188113
LAug 19 · 10:05M. Holub177370D. Lengal331111113
M. Holub10
LOct 2 · 13:09M. Holub2.5012113872T. Bartik1.471091111113WOct 2 · 12:35T. Bartik1.57117811M. Holub2.2531111113LOct 2 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.401211113M. Holub2.7510650LSep 26 · 13:24O. Polak1.53111112113M. Holub2.38491451LSep 26 · 12:35O. Polak1.571512811113M. Holub2.25171011882LSep 26 · 11:35M. Holub2.10115671O. Stehlik1.6761111113LSep 26 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.5311812113M. Holub2.387111071LSep 25 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.611111113M. Holub2.207870WSep 25 · 12:05M. Holub1.80911111113J. Ruzicka1.9111731182LSep 25 · 11:05M. Holub1.91411111172R. Neterda1.80118913113
D. Lengal10
WOct 2 · 12:05J. Hitzger1.80611571D. Lengal1.9111611113WOct 2 · 10:35D. Lengal2.001211113T. Bartik1.7310730LSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232WSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 29 · 12:05D. Lengal1.331111113M. Mastera3.256950LAug 29 · 11:05D. Lengal1.7365111172M. Kucera2.00111177113WAug 29 · 10:05D. Lengal1.40128117133J. Ruzicka2.751011511112
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