TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Korobko vs Andrii Kotiash 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1131012911116119
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Korobko to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Korobko above · Andrii Kotiash below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 93 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Volodymyr Korobko at 56.6%
93 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Korobko 1–0 Andrii Kotiash Andrii Kotiash has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5856.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Korobko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Korobko 1486 vs Kotiash 1416
Korobko
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobko 60% vs Kotiash 20%
Korobko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobko 50% vs Kotiash 20%
Korobko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobko +3 · Kotiash -2
Korobko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Korobko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotiash form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobko 1.666 / Kotiash 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Korobko)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229059
Korobko1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 35 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it79% 27 of 34
Kotiash2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 12 days ago (Sep 20) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 47 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKorobko1wins
AwayKotiash0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderKorobko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKorobkoKotiashKorobko − KotiashBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match52.041.0+11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobkoKotiashBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 466 vs 214 / 45844.6%46.7%208 / 466 vs 214 / 458Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KorobkoKorobko 1.67/Kotiash 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Korobko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Korobko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 2 · 20:15V. Korobko521110911113A. Kotiash4131211692
V. Korobko10
WOct 2 · 21:45V. Korobko2.001111133O. Gazhula1.7399110WSep 29 · 02:00V. Moshovskyi1.535970V. Korobko2.381111113WSep 29 · 01:00V. Korobko3.001011118113M. Potapov1.3612981182WSep 29 · 00:00V. Korobko2.201212811113I. Pytsko1.61141011782LSep 28 · 22:30V. Korobko1.6111111110102I. Fashchevskyi2.20931312123LSep 28 · 20:30V. Korobko3.50113571D. Maltsev1.2871111113WSep 26 · 02:15S. Prus1.912970V. Korobko1.801111113LSep 26 · 01:15V. Korobko2.0055100D. Palii1.731111123LSep 26 · 00:15V. Korobko2.25118581M. Slozka1.5781111113LSep 25 · 22:45V. Korobko1.8336100O. Gazhula1.831111123
A. Kotiash10
WOct 2 · 21:15O. Sydorchuk1.8013141513152A. Kotiash1.9111121715173LSep 20 · 11:50A. Kotiash1.4011881292O. Osadchyi2.754111110113LSep 20 · 10:20A. Kotiash1.538650D. Khairov2.381111113WSep 20 · 08:50A. Kotiash1.8331114123A. Kurtenko1.8311312101LSep 20 · 07:20A. Kotiash1.80711651S. Solomko1.9111811113LSep 20 · 05:50A. Kotiash1.917511101E. Populovskyi1.8011119123LSep 19 · 11:35A. Kotiash2.63511851V. Kryvenko1.4411911113LSep 19 · 09:35Y. Volkov1.2881111113A. Kotiash3.50114221WSep 19 · 08:35A. Kotiash2.2011116113Y. Kovshun1.61961141LSep 19 · 07:35I. Efimenko1.2061112113A. Kotiash4.331161081
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