TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Kadavy vs Tomas Flicek 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118117––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:20 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kadavy to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · Tomas Flicek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Ondrej Kadavy at 62.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 4–1 Tomas Flicek Tomas Flicek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2062.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 0.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kadavy
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Kadavy
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1770 vs Flicek 1604
Kadavy
Correct
both rated, 166 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 80% vs Flicek 40%
Kadavy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 60% vs Flicek 20%
Kadavy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy +3 · Flicek -1
Kadavy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kadavy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kadavy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.571 / Flicek 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Kadavy)-0.8pp
TT Cup · #13226397
Kadavy1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 76 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it98% 43 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Flicek2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 24) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog18% won 2 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKadavy4wins
AwayFlicek1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderKadavy leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy75%3 of 4
AwayFlicekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy4Flicek1n = 5Kadavy took 4 of 5
S2Kadavy1Flicek4n = 5Flicek took 4 of 5
S3Kadavy3Flicek2n = 5Kadavy took 3 of 5
S4Kadavy4Flicek1n = 5Kadavy took 4 of 5
S5Kadavy2Flicek1n = 3Kadavy took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKadavyFlicekK − FBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match44.836.8+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyFlicekBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 331 vs 62 / 13458%46.3%192 / 331 vs 62 / 134Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyKadavy 1.57/Flicek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 24 · 17:25O. Kadavy47681111113T. Flicek3211116132
WSep 15 · 15:25O. Kadavy4311912113T. Flicek348111051
WAug 19 · 15:25O. Kadavy42111145113T. Flicek3464111122
WDec 18 · 18:55O. Kadavy43111011113T. Flicek35712971
LDec 18 · 17:55O. Kadavy49111181182T. Flicek49713117113
O. Kadavy10
WOct 1 · 16:55V. Benak1.73711581O. Kadavy2.0011511113LOct 1 · 16:25F. Strejc2.0081112113O. Kadavy1.731161071WSep 28 · 14:25O. Kadavy1.80111135113D. Bochnak1.9176111122WSep 28 · 13:25M. Cerny2.756490O. Kadavy1.401111113WSep 28 · 12:25O. Kadavy1.57111110113P. Vanek2.25621261LSep 28 · 10:55D. Bochnak2.10116811113O. Kadavy1.6741111952WSep 27 · 14:17F. Strejc2.257990O. Kadavy1.571111113LSep 27 · 12:55M. Cerny3.0011811113O. Kadavy1.36811841LSep 27 · 12:25V. Benak1.8011611143O. Kadavy1.919111121WSep 27 · 11:25O. Kadavy1.91115411123F. Strejc1.80711117102
T. Flicek10
WOct 1 · 15:55V. Benak1.61811871T. Flicek2.2011911113LSep 24 · 17:25T. Flicek1.8311116132O. Kadavy1.83681111113WSep 24 · 15:55M. Cerny1.731116671T. Flicek2.0061811113LSep 24 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.73611126113T. Flicek2.00117101152WSep 15 · 17:54F. Strejc1.80101170T. Flicek1.911213113LSep 15 · 17:25T. Flicek1.83771141F. Strejc1.8311113113LSep 15 · 15:55L. Soucek1.911114113T. Flicek1.8041280LSep 15 · 15:25O. Kadavy1.5311912113T. Flicek2.388111051LSep 7 · 17:53V. Benak1.83961211133T. Flicek1.831111105112LSep 7 · 16:55V. Benak1.80111411123T. Flicek1.917165101
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