TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Filip Kubos vs Vit Herrmann 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611211611––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:20 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeVit Herrmann to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Kubos above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 66 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Vit Herrmann at 60.1%
66 points played in total.
H2H Filip Kubos 2–5 Vit Herrmann Filip Kubos has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2060.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Herrmann
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Herrmann
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubos 1491 vs Herrmann 1556
Herrmann
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubos 20% vs Herrmann 40%
Herrmann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubos 30% vs Herrmann 50%
Herrmann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubos -2 · Herrmann -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Herrmann) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubos 2.25 / Herrmann 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Herrmann)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223712
Kubos2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 72 of 170
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 56
Herrmann1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 26)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 38 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it74% 28 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKubos2wins
AwayHerrmann5wins
5 of 7 to a deciderHerrmann leads 5–2, and 5 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubosn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHerrmann80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubos2Herrmann5n = 7Herrmann took 5 of 7
S2Kubos3Herrmann4n = 7Herrmann took 4 of 7
S3Kubos4Herrmann3n = 7Kubos took 4 of 7
S4Kubos2Herrmann4n = 6Herrmann took 4 of 6
S5Kubos2Herrmann3n = 5Herrmann took 3 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKubosHerrmannK − HBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match41.945.9−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubosHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 704 vs 216 / 44149.9%49%351 / 704 vs 216 / 441Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HerrmannKubos 2.25/Herrmann 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Herrmann · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Herrmann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 21 · 19:45F. Kubos4291111562V. Herrmann48117811113
LAug 8 · 10:00F. Kubos259880V. Herrmann331111113
LAug 2 · 15:30F. Kubos471011114112V. Herrmann50129511133
LJul 6 · 11:00F. Kubos28126551V. Herrmann43101111113
WJun 27 · 09:30F. Kubos511211611113V. Herrmann48101311862
LApr 6 · 11:15F. Kubos511010131172V. Herrmann521212116113
WMar 28 · 16:15F. Kubos49911116123V. Herrmann47117811102
F. Kubos10
LOct 1 · 13:30F. Kubos2.3811116782Z. Kuksa1.53961111113LSep 28 · 20:43F. Kubos1.57116111172T. Bertho2.25411134113WSep 28 · 19:45T. Bertho2.107890F. Kubos1.671111113LSep 28 · 18:45S. Kalensky1.919111111113F. Kubos1.8011813882LSep 28 · 17:15J. Snr1.91511511123F. Kubos1.80115116102LSep 27 · 21:04R. Merkl1.5711119113F. Kubos2.25651151WSep 27 · 19:30F. Kubos2.2512611123A. Pavlik1.5710118101LSep 27 · 18:30F. Kubos2.75741171L. Kolman1.4011115113WSep 27 · 17:30F. Kubos3.25711116113R. Merkl1.3311681182LSep 21 · 20:23F. Kubos1.80111180S. Kalensky1.911313113
V. Herrmann10
LOct 1 · 14:00O. Horak2.25411812113V. Herrmann1.57119111062LSep 26 · 13:09L. Stoces1.751111123V. Herrmann1.9598100WSep 26 · 11:30T. Hanke1.67513131032V. Herrmann2.1011111112113WSep 26 · 11:00V. Herrmann1.61111211113T. Bertho2.201310891LSep 26 · 10:00V. Herrmann2.00111261062L. Stoces1.737101112113LSep 21 · 20:53V. Herrmann1.837690L. Stoces1.831111113WSep 21 · 19:45F. Kubos2.2591111562V. Herrmann1.57117811113LSep 21 · 18:45L. Stoces1.91121111113V. Herrmann1.80146891WSep 21 · 17:15S. Kalensky1.913660V. Herrmann1.801111113LSep 19 · 16:53J. Juppa1.57119124103V. Herrmann2.25511101162
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