TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Chovanec vs Pavel Smetka 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Pavel Chovanec
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113711117811––
Pavel Smetka
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:18 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timePavel Chovanec to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Chovanec above · Pavel Smetka below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 79 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Pavel Chovanec at 55.8%
79 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chovanec 0–1 Pavel Smetka Pavel Chovanec has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1855.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chovanec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chovanec 1471 vs Smetka 1475
Smetka
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chovanec 40% vs Smetka 20%
Chovanec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chovanec 50% vs Smetka 10%
Chovanec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chovanec -3 · Smetka -2
Chovanec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Chovanec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smetka form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChovanec 1.666 / Smetka 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Chovanec)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222355
Chovanec1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 18 days ago (Sep 13) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite44% won 8 of 18
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Smetka2.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 25)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 7 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back15% 2 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeChovanec0wins
AwaySmetka1wins
Smetka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricChovanecSmetkaC − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match37.042.0−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChovanecSmetkaBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 51 vs 61 / 14139.2%43.3%20 / 51 vs 61 / 141Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.534.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChovanecChovanec 1.67/Smetka 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Chovanec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Smetka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 1 · 06:30P. Chovanec371171181P. Smetka4213117113
P. Chovanec10
LOct 1 · 08:00D. Machander1.5781111113P. Chovanec2.25118631LOct 1 · 07:00P. Osvald2.201111811113P. Chovanec1.6129111362LSep 13 · 09:08P. Chovanec2.105410M. Blejchar1.661111113LSep 13 · 08:00P. Chovanec1.6111115672O. Hradil2.20991111113LSep 13 · 07:30A. Rinka1.801111113P. Chovanec1.918360WSep 13 · 06:00P. Chovanec1.6171211113M. Blejchar2.201110741WSep 7 · 13:30O. Hradil1.8311117592P. Chovanec1.83951111113LSep 7 · 12:00O. Hradil2.0014112123P. Chovanec1.7312511101WSep 7 · 11:00P. Osvald2.201188101P. Chovanec1.6191111123WSep 7 · 10:30P. Chovanec1.571111113M. Blejchar2.259330
P. Smetka10
LOct 1 · 07:30P. Smetka2.6311118682D. Machander1.44841111113LSep 25 · 13:00P. Smetka2.004590I. Taichman1.731111113LSep 25 · 12:00I. Taichman1.9111511113P. Smetka1.80911701WSep 25 · 11:00M. Koral1.7311421292P. Smetka2.009111110113LSep 25 · 10:30P. Smetka1.83121211582M. Kowolowski1.831014411113LSep 23 · 16:59R. Vavrecka1.331111116113P. Smetka3.2513581162LSep 23 · 16:30P. Smetka1.73116791L. Velicka2.0091111113LSep 23 · 15:00P. Smetka2.10871161D. Machander1.6711114113LSep 23 · 14:00R. Vavrecka1.221111113P. Smetka4.008180LApr 25 · 17:05D. Heczko1.201111113P. Smetka4.335650
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